Baseball

Related: 2006 season overview

By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com

Discuss the season

AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
 

1. CLEVELAND INDIANS

Hot Player: Backup infielder Ramon Vazquez won’t make or break the Indians this year, but he’ll make or break a few hearts, including, apparently, my boyfriend’s.  The Tribe’s So-Called Quest: To have fallen short of the playoffs, as well as the Indians played last year, could have been a disastrous situation. But for most people, the heartache was overshadowed by a sense that something good is happening with this incarnation of the Indians. The team has developed its own talent, for the most part, and in the last few years players like C Victor Martinez (.305-20-80) and CF Grady Sizemore (.289-22-81) have begun to show glimpses of what the future could hold in Cleveland.             Some question whether it all was a little too easy, the way the Indians rose to near the top of the American League. SS Jhonny Peralta, for example, not only has an H where none should ever be in his name but also hit 24 homers despite never having shown that sort of power potential before. Prior to last year he had 4 homers in 267 major league at-bats, and hadn’t hit more than 15 in a minor league season. It’s all a little bit “deal with the devil,” if you ask me. Could a regression be in the cards? Unanswered Questions: Other than the aforementioned question about Peralta, and a similar one about 2B Ronnie Belliard (is a 5-foot-8 guy whose cousin, Rafael, was known for his stout refusal to hit the ball over the fence supposed to hit 17 homers?), the most important questions surround the team’s pitching. C.C. Sabathia is talented and has established himself as an upper-tier starter, if not a star. Last year Cliff Lee (18-5, 3.79) joined if not surpassed him. But are newly acquired Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson good enough to take the team to the next level? Also, speaking of deals with the devil, can Bob Wickman (45 saves) continue to save games despite seeming to have below-average stuff for a closer? Inside The Numbers: Lowest Strikeout-to-Save Ratio, 2005, Minimum 20 Saves B. Wickman, Indians             0.91 (41/45) A. Benitez, Giants                 1.21 (23/19) D. Baez, Devil Rays              1.24 (51/41) T. Hoffman, Padres               1.26 (54/43) C. Cordero, Nationals          1.29 (61/47) This isn’t a statistic that most people, or anybody really, follows, but it’s revealing in a way. While the top closers like Brad Lidge and Mariano Rivera strike out more than two batters per each save they earn, Wickman was the only one in the majors who struck out fewer than one batter per save. He was effective in many ways, but he certainly didn’t strike fear into the hearts of his opponents last year. Nor will he this year. Outlook: All signs point to a simple answer. Yes, the Indians will find a way to keep winning. The young talent will continue to mature and the Indians will once again compete in the AL Central and perhaps make noise in the playoffs as well. If Travis Hafner can stay healthy for a full season, he has the ability to his 40 home runs. Fans at Jacob Field will have plenty to cheer about in ’06 and for many years beyond. Prediction: 93-69 (2005 Record: 93-69)

2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Hot Player: Backup outfielder Jerry Owens. I know just about nothing about him, but I agree he’s the best looking of the White Sox outfielders. How’d They Do That?: How did the White Sox do it last year? Going into the season, few expected they were anything more than a .500 team, especially after the loss of two of their best power hitters. But the team employed an NL-style of offense, utilizing speed, played solid defense, and pitched well. It was enough. This year, the team was aggressive during the offseason, bringing in veteran Jim Thome to add power and pitcher Javier Vazquez to augment a solid rotation. It would seem the White Sox now have an embarrassment of riches. Surely they’re better than they were last year. Aren’t they? They’re Better, Aren’t They?: Perhaps not. One of the best things about this team last year was its bullpen. The White Sox finished the year with a bullpen ERA of 3.23, good for 2nd best in the American League. This spring, the ‘pen has been struggling, and it’s not too surprising. It’s a house built on sand. Consider the team’s bullpen (see stat below) and you’ll have to agree that it’s hardly a given that this group will be quite as great this year. The two guys who had come in with good major league credentials, Jose Vizcaino and Damaso Marte, are gone. So no, I’m not buying that this team got better during the offseason. Inside The Numbers: Current White Sox Bullpen                                     ERA pre-’05  ERA ‘05 Dustin Hermanson    4.31                2.04  Cliff Politte                 4.50                2.00  Neal Cotts                  6.06                1.94  Bobby Jenks              4.95*               2.75  Brandon McCarthy    3.20*               4.03  *In minors  Either bullpen coach Art Kusnyer is a goddamn pitching genius, or the above is a sign that the White Sox bullpen significantly overachieved during the team’s World Series run last year. I’ll take what’s behind door No. 2, Bob. It was Kusnyer’s eighth year on the job last year, and same goes for pitching coach Don Cooper, in his 3rd year last season. This group is seriously vulnerable this year. Outlook: Everything broke right for Ozzie Guillen and company in ’05. I just don’t see that happening again. This team is good enough to contend again, just as they were in ’03 and ’04. But it’s not at all clear that the White Sox are the elite team in the American League. Not by a mile. Prediction: 87-75 (2005 Record: 99-63)

3. DETROIT TIGERS

Hot Player: Young CF Curtis Granderson. His future’s as bright as his smile. Who’s Your Daddy: For the Tigers, the new answer to that question is Jim Leyland, and that’s good news for Detroit. Leyland has succeeded where others have failed before. That’s exactly what is needed in Detroit, where the Tigers haven’t posted a winning season since 1993. Alan Trammell was given a shot in ’02, and while the team improved its win total each year (43 to 70 to 71), it wasn’t enough to keep his job. Now Leyland has the job, and in reality he has a decent group to work with. He’s won with speed and defense up the middle before (2B Luis Castillo, SS Edgar Renteria, CF Devon White in Florida), and this team offers him a similar opportunity with similarly talented players. Solid up the Gut: Most major league teams would trade its double play combination for that of the Tigers. 2B Placido Polanco and SS Carlos Guillen are both very strong defensive players who cover a lot of ground and don’t make a lot of errors. Add young CF Curtis Granderson, who projects as a very strong five-tool player with great speed and defensive instincts, and the Tigers have a great foundation up the middle. If you include catcher Ivan Rodriguez, it’s even better. And that’s just defense. Offensively, this group is unheralded but exceedingly talented. Two years ago Guillen hit .318 with 20 homers as a shortstop. If he’s healthy he can do it again, and Granderson has similar plate ability. Polanco is a perennial .300 hitter. Inside The Numbers: Jim Leyland’s First Years     Year                ’86                   ’97                   ’99                   ‘06 Team              Pirates     Marlins            Rockies                Tigers   W-L +/-           +7                    +12                 -5                     ?? Is the man a miracle worker? No. Twice, he’s significantly improved his team over the year before, but with the Rockies in ’99, the team actually regressed to 72-90. So while it’s not impossible that the man who led the Marlins to a World Championship in his first year could do it again in Detroit, it’s hardly a sure thing. Outlook: There’s plenty to like about this team. Camera incident aside, Kenny Rogers is a nice addition who can stabilize a young and talented pitching staff. The team has unheralded power in 1B Chris Shelton and LF Craig Monroe, and Magglio Ordonez, who if healthy could re-emerge as one of baseball’s top sluggers in right field. A division title could be tough, given the company the Tigers keep in the AL Central, but a .500 season is not at all hard to imagine.           Prediction: 83-79 (2005 Record: 71-91)

4. MINNESOTA TWINS

Hot Player: C Joe Mauer will soon be the finest catcher in baseball. He’s also, simply, a great catch. Free Falling: You know you’re in trouble when the two biggest offseason moves are to bring in a free-swinging slugger who couldn’t get the job done in Japan, and a speedy second baseman who no longer steals bases. That’s what the Twins did this offseason, bringing in 3B Tony Batista and 2B Luis Castillo to augment a team that appears to be transitioning from a young contender into a bit of a mess. There’s still ample talent in Minnesota, starting at the top of their rotation with Johan Santana, who may be the finest pitcher in baseball. It continues with his battery mate, Joe Mauer, who is only 22 and primed to become the best catcher in baseball. Many still believe that Justin Morneau’s tough campaign last year was an aberration and that he’ll emerge as one of baseball’s true sluggers, and Torii Hunter is a spectacular centerfielder. So what’s the problem? Why not the Twins in the Central? Here’s Why Not: These Twins are aren’t exactly world beaters in any aspect of the game. Unless Morneau hits 40 homers this year, the Twins are a good bet to be among the worst power hitting teams in the American League this year. Shannon Stewart and Lew Ford may patrol the outfield corners this year, and they combined to hit just 17 homers last year in 1,073 at-bats. Batista will hit a few out of the park, but he’ll also whiff a ton. Mauer hasn’t yet developed much power. One good addition was Rondell White. He’s a fine hitter and a great clubhouse leader, but he has serious problems staying healthy. How many times has White gotten 500 at-bats in his 13-year career? Amazingly, only once, back in 1997.             The pitching beyond Santana is a bit of a mess. Brad Radke is set to retire after this year and is at this point only a serviceable option. Kyle Lohse has never developed into a frontline guy. The eminently hittable Carlos Silva is around. The team has to hope that phenom Francisco Liriano gets ready in a hurry if it wants to scare opponents beyond their ace. Inside The Numbers: Fewest Walks, Min. 162 IP, ‘05   C. Silva, Min              9          188.1 D. Wells, Bos             21        184.0 B. Radke, MIN           23        200.2 P. Byrd, LAA              28        204.1 J. Towers, TOR         29        208.2  The Twins don’t like putting guys on base, and they had two of the starting pitchers least likely to walk batters last year. Carlos Silva was astounding, walking just 9 in 188 innings. Unfortunately, he wasn’t all that hard to hit. By the way, the only two guys on this list to allow more homers than walks: The two Twins. Radke and Silva allowed 58 homers, walked just 32 batters. Not the best tradeoff. Outlook: There are plenty of experts who consider it a foregone conclusion that the Twins are the third of a three-team race in the AL Central. Most seem to think they’re a rather distant third. I disagree. This team will struggle to score runs and could also struggle to keep teams from scoring runs this year. With Torii Hunter’s contract running out at the end of the year, don’t be surprised if contenders become very interested in his services come July. Prediction: 75-87 (2005 Record: 83-79)

5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Hot Player: Reggie Sanders. Daddy. He’s looked good in the outfield for a decade and a half now. I’d Like to Buy a Vowel: “…Groundball to the pitcher Greinke. He makes the play, turns and fires to second for the first out. Grudzielanek makes the turn, fires to first to Mientkiewicz… double play!”             Well, the first part of this won’t happen anytime soon, since pitcher Zack Greinke is out indefinitely with emotional issues. Who can blame the guy? I watched these guys just once last year and had to see a shrink for the next month. Meanwhile the young phenom had to pitch for them, and 5-17 with a 5.80 ERA tends to be hard to take for most guys. But anyway, the team brought in Mark Grudzielanek to play second, Doug Mientkiewicz to play first, and while that should be fun fun fun for announcers, it may be considerably less fun for Royals fans. I’d Like to Buy a Winner: This appears to have been the sentiment GM Allard Baird and co. felt after a brutal 106-loss season. The team opened their wallets, something they haven’t done so often, and made some shrewd investments. Grudzielanek (.294-8-59) is a solid 2B and a proven contact hitter, a veteran who should improve things in the clubhouse. Mientkiewicz (.240-11-29) is a great defensive first baseman who at one time was a fine hitter but hasn’t been, recently. Even better was the addition of Reggie Sanders (.271-21-54), perennially underrated in the outfield. The three should solidify a lineup that hit just 126 homers in ’05, 29th in the league. But the pitching staff additions don’t really appear to be the kind that will make the team competitive. Bringing in three veteran starters with limited upside (if any) in Scott Elarton (11-9, 4.61), Mark Redman (5-15, 4.90), and Joe Mays (6-10, 5.65) is a head scratcher. They filled out their rotation, but didn’t make the Royals competitive. One wonders what the point is in spending all the money, if the result is a team that remains the least talented in the entire league. Inside The Numbers: Team ranks                                     ’04                   ‘05            W-L                             58-104             56-106 Runs scored              720 (21)                         701 (21)                       ERA                            5.15 (28)        5.49 (30)                     The offense has been bad, but might be a touch better in ’06, with the veteran brought in to help Mike Sweeney and company. But it was the pitching that has really undermined baseball’s worst team these last two years, and when your opening day starter is Scott Elarton, it can’t really be said that there’s been great improvement in that area. Outlook: I love the signing of Reggie Sanders, for everybody except, well, Sanders. He’s a winner and that can only help. And remember, this team went 83-79 three years ago. So can’t they do it again? Probably not. A modest improvement offensively can be expected, especially if Sweeney can stay healthy for once, but Elarton, Mays and Redman at the top of a rotation doesn’t sound even remotely promising. Prediction: 62-100 (2005 Record: 56-106)