Baseball

Related: 2006 season overview

By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

1. OAKLAND ATHETICS

Hot Player: He didn’t hit a single home run last year in his first AL season, but C Jason Kendall sure fills out a uniform nicely. Something’s Different This Year: It seems every year recently the story in Oakland has been about whether the Athletics could overcome the loss of key players due to salary issues. Not so this year. During the offseason, Oakland made some key additions and didn't lose much. Let's be real, however: Nobody is going to mistake Frank Thomas '06 with Frank Thomas '96. Last year his health limited him to 105 at-bats and a .219 average, and he’s been bothered by an ankle injury all spring. And while no one doubts that the combustible Milton Bradley has great talent, why should we believe that a move to a more laid-back atmosphere will morph him into Vladimir Guerrero? It’s All Good: What may really make this a good year for Oakland isn't the additions, but the growth of several key young players. If '04 Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby can stay healthy and put things together, and if Nick Swisher can start to tap his potential, this team could start to score enough runs to back up a terrific pitching staff led by Barry Zito and Rich Harden. The team struggled to score runs consistently last year, and they still won 88 games. On top of that, their pitching staff should be improved this year with the addition of Esteban Loaiza (12-10, 3.77) and the maturation of youngsters like Dan Haren (14-12, 3.73 in his first full season) and surprising rookie Joe Blanton (12-12, 3.53). Barring injury, this could be the American League's finest staff. On what other team would former 20-game winner Loaiza be listed as a fifth starter? He might actually be the top starter on that team that everyone is picking to go to the World Series. The Bronx something… Inside The Numbers: Athletics Pitching Staff, ’04-‘05                         ’04                   ‘05 ERA                4.17                3.69                K/9                  6.32                6.67 WHIP              1.37                1.25  It was a case of addition by subtraction last year. Despite losing Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, the team actually improved on the mound in ’05. The emergence of Rich Harden and Joe Blanton and addition of Dan Haren was a big part of that. Outlook: It all looks good for Oakland heading into the '06 season. Zito says he feels better than he has in a long time, and Bradley was caught smiling in the outfield at least a couple times this spring. A steady improvement at the plate by Oakland could go a long way toward making them the team to beat in the American League this year. Prediction: 96-66 (2005 Record: 88-74)

2. LOS ANGELES/ANAHEIM ANGELS

Hot Player: The Angels think 1B Casey Kotchman could be a star. Maybe so, although last year they said the same thing about 3B Dallas McPherson. Quick Rant: Not sure what it is with these California teams. Last year, one of the key issues for the otherwise excellent Angels was a lack of power outside of superstar Vladimir Guerrero. After Guerrero's 32 homers, the team's next highest total was 17, by Garret Anderson. The Angels were unsuccessful in their offseason wooing of Paul Konerko, so expect that the Angels will have the same problem this year, only worse, after trading away two of their five double-digit homer guys (Steve Finley, Bengie Molina). Just like another California team with a similar problem a few years ago, the Angels dealt for third baseman Edgardo Alfonso this offseason. Didn't work up north with him protecting Barry Bonds. Probably won't work down south, either. Quick Rant II: Chone Figgins is a super sub. He's the best thing since sliced bread. He can steal bases, he can hit for power, he's a sparkplug at the top of the Angels order. The Angels love him because he's versitile. Whatever. So am I. It doesn't mean I'm gonna help my team make the World Series. Chone and I also have that in common. And Another Thing: Here's the thing that's holding the Angels back: Anaheim. There's something wrong with this city. So possessive… The Mighty Ducks of Anaheim? The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? We get it. The teams are yours. You're holding on too tight, Anaheim. You're a city that loves too much. Release the teams you love. Set them free. If they loves you back, they'll come back to you. Nicer, Now: This is still a good team. Guerrero is all that and a bag of chips, and with the emergence of John Lackey and Ervin Santana and addition of Jeff Weaver, along with Cy Young winner Bartolo Colon, the Angels can truly pitch. But I’m concerned about the offense. Even if Dallas McPherson finds a position and becomes a post-hype success, even if Casey Kotchman develops into a perennial .300 hitter at first, this team may struggle to score runs. They may well regret the day they sent Molina packing. That could be a fatal flaw in baseball’s toughest division. Inside The Numbers: Offensive Downswing                          ’04       ‘05 Runs               836     761     HR                   162     147 BA                   .282    .270 Here’s an illustration of how much less intimidating the Angels were at the plate last year. While pitching kept them up with the top teams in the league, the Angels managed to score 75 fewer runs, mostly because they hit 12 points lower as a team. Prediction: 88-74 (2005 Record: 95-67)

3. TEXAS RANGERS

Hot Player: If Chuck ever leaves me, chances are it will be because he’s run off with David Dellucci. Or he’s stalking him. This is NOT a good picture of the guy. Great On Paper: No team in baseball has had more trouble converting what looks good on paper into wins. About five years ago, after the team signed Alex Rodriguez, I wrote a column for ESPN.com about how the Rangers could have one of the best-ever offenses. Not quite. Now the team is going in a different direction, and again it looks good on paper. Adding arms like Kevin Millwood and Adam Eaton could go a long way toward stopping the offensive onslaughts that have regularly taken place at the Ballpark at Arlington these last few seasons. Many have already discounted what Millwood will do in a Rangers uniform. I think that's a mistake. If he's healthy, he should be fine, even in a hitters' park. Millwood found great success in his first season in the AL last year. He won just nine games because the Indians averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game when he was on the mound, third-lowest among AL starters. That won't be a problem in Texas. Could They Really Be Good?: Maybe. The Rangers led the league in home runs last year with 264, just four shy of the all-time mark (Seattle, 2001). Losing Alfonso Soriano may hurt some, but rookie Ian Kinsler appears ready to replace to hold down second at second and Brad Wilkerson will replace some of Soriano’s power. Mark Teixeira was one of baseball's five best hitters last year at 25, and should only get better. He's gotten significantly better in each of his three major league seasons, Maybe David Dellucci doesn’t hit nearly 30 homers again, but they'll still score runs in bunches. Inside The Numbers: Last Four Seasons, Rangers Team Ranks                          ’02       ’03       ’04       ‘05 HR                   1          1          4          1 Runs               5          8          4          3 ERA                27        30        18        26 This idea of focusing on pitching isn’t completely new in Texas. The team has fared slightly better these last two seasons, no doubt one of the reasons the team has averaged 84 wins the last two years after winning 71 and 72 games the two years before. The additions of Millwood and Eaton should help Texas continue this trend. Outlook: Of course, all of this is on paper. When the Rangers play games, bad things seem to happen. I certainly won't point to karma, or any of their former part-owners as possible reasons for this. That would be wrong. Also, their pitching staff has holes. Vincente Padilla was an All-Star four years ago, and  Kameron Loe is considered young and talented, but lots of Rangers pitchers have had those monikers. Where are they now? Until their pitching is more settled, don’t expect them to make the postseason in the tough AL West. Prediction: 84-78 (2005 Record: 79-83)

4. SEATTLE MARINERS

Hot Player: Pitcher Jarrod Washburn would like nothing more than to show up his former team, the Angels. Chuck would like nothing more than an autographed photo of him shirtless. Built To Win: Sure, these Mariners have lost 99 and 93 games the last two years. No one is denying that or asking fans to forget. But if any so-called “bad” team was primed to improve without much turnover this offseason, it’s these Mariners. The reason: pitching potential, and defense up the middle. Most teams would kill to have the defensive prowess at short and second base that the Mariners have. If you don’t know these names yet, learn them. Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Jeremy Reed. Betancourt, a 24-year-old shortstop, has been compared to Omar Vizquel in the field; Lopez, at second base, packs a little punch at the plate and appears greatly improved this spring at second. Speedy centerfielder Reed didn’t thrill anyone at the plate in his rookie season, but he can flat out fly in the outfield. Add to that a pitching staff loaded with experience and potential – Jamie Moyer is about as experienced as you can get at 42, and 19-year-old Felix Hernandez has insane potential – and this is a team that could do some things. Not to mention the power at the corners. 1B Richie Sexson could easily hit 40 homers in a season, and Adrian Beltre, coming off a terrible year, is a good bet to regain some of the stroke he showed in ’04 (.334-48-121). Reality Check: 16 games. That was the biggest improvement in the standings for any team from ’04 to ’05 (White Sox, Diamondbacks). Both of those teams added at least four starting bats during the offseason. These Mariners added two (Kenjii Johjima, Carl Everett). Doesn’t mean they can’t pull it off, but the odds are against them, given that they’re in baseball’s toughest division. Inside The Numbers: Ichiro, by pitch count                                     ’04       ‘05 0-0 Count                    .456    .200 After 1-0 count           .419    .302 After 0-1 count           .294    .324 An interesting nugget about Ichiro’s fall from grace last year. In ’04, when he set the major league mark for hits, he was incredible when first-pitch swinging. He put the ball in play 114 times, and hit an insane .456 on first pitches. Not so much last year. First of all, he hit a paltry .200 in those situations. He also only connected on 65 of those first pitches. Also notice that in his great season, he was as good as on if he got a first pitch ball. Last year, it barely mattered whether a pitcher got ahead or behind Ichiro. Outlook: This is now Ichiro's team. After last year, the Japanese superstar spoke out to manager Mike Hargrove, complaining about the team's lack of direction and the poor preparation of some of his teammates. The conversation seems to have been a good experience for everyone; Hargrove credits his star outfielder for helping him see some things he hadn't seen before, and Ichiro himself feels ready to rebound after a sub-par (for him) season in which he hit .303. He and a few other Mariners appear ready to turn things around (Beltre, Reed, Joel Pineiro), but even so, a .500 season would be a great improvement in Seattle. Prediction: 79-83 (2005 Record: 69-93)