Baseball

Related: 2006 season overview

By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com 

NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
 

1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Hot Player: Oh Albert. The day I saw you hit a one-handed home run at Coors Field, on a pitch basically in the dirt, I fell forever in love. Cause for Concern: The Cardinals are just about the consensus pick to win the NL Central, and many have them ticketed for their second World Series in three years as the class of the league. So here’s the question: If the Cardinals are so spectacular, how is it that they could find themselves considering two castoffs from the Rockies as starters? Seriously. Are we to believe that fading reliever Ray King was worth two starters on one of baseball’s finest teams? Before a spring injury, Larry Bigbie was set to start in left after failing to win a job in Colorado; Aaron Miles will likely backup at second now that Junior Spivey is in town. What gives? In reality, this is a dicey offense with all sorts of holes heading into the season. Other than Albert Pujols, who is beyond reproach, the team is relying on a comeback from 3B Scott Rolen, a big year from 35-year-old CF Jim Edmonds, and a bunch of guys who individually don’t scare too many pitchers. Pitching to the Rescue: The pitching staff was tremendous last year, but is the talent there to repeat? Chris Carpenter surprised everyone by establishing himself as one of baseball’s elite pitchers, and looked just as good this spring. Mark Mulder no longer strikes out as many batters but is solid. But what the team will get out of Jeff Suppan, Jason Marquis and Sidney Ponson is hard to know. They could turn out to be the finest rotation in baseball, or fall apart in a hurry. Again, this team looks a little thin in all key areas. Inside The Numbers: Cardinals’ offense, last two years                         Runs/Gm          BA       HR       ’04                   5.28                 .278     214 ’05                   4.97                 .270     170 This team suffered a major offensive dropoff in ’05, and Scott Rolen’s injury certainly played a role. But that doesn’t account for a full 60 runs. Also factored in was a decrease in Jim Edmonds’ production, and the fact that Pujols’ surrounding cast simply wasn’t as good. Expect a similar dropoff this year. Outlook: As it appears, the NL Central is not so tough that the Cardinals can’t win it despite a slight fall from grace. A Rolen revival and a typical year from Pujols should be enough to power this team during the summer in St. Louis. Just don’t expect that they’ll be the team to beat in the playoffs this year. Prediction: 92-70 (2005 Record: 100-62)

2. MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Hot Player: SS J.J. Hardy is a major part of what is going to be the most exciting young infield in baseball for years to come. Cute, too. Harvey’s Wallbangers ’06?: The Brewers opened a lot of eyes last year by remaining somewhat competitive in the NL Central with a young, unproven cast of talented players. Pitchers like Chris Capuano and Doug Davis excelled. 2B Rickie Weeks and SS J.J. Hardy flashed their considerable talent. Even a small step forward from the Brew Crew would put the team in uncharted waters. The Brewers last finished over .500 in 1992; they last made the playoffs in 1982, back when I was 11 and wondering if the fact that I wanted Gorman Thomas to be my father was a tad weird. This year’s team has an excellent chance to make some noise because of its young, talented infield and established power bats in the outfield. Two years ago I saw 1B Prince Fielder in spring training and was blown away by how hard the ball came off his bat. He’s a good bet to eclipse his father’s numbers. But Can They Pitch?: In a word, yes. Everyone knows that Ben Sheets is a formidable ace when healthy, and last year, Capuano (18-12, 3.99) and Davis (208 Ks) stepped up. The rotation should be fine, although some question whether Capuano is really an 18-game winner. The rotation isn’t as good as the one in St. Louis, but it’s solid. The big question is whether the bullpen, anchored by the possibly insane Derrick Turnbow is good enough. Turnbow, whose eyes are too close together and who appears very angry and in need of a shave, looked terrible this spring after posting a 1.74 ERA en route to 39 saves last year. With the scary Danny Kolb backing him up, this is an area where an implosion could occur. Inside The Numbers: Molitor-Yount-Cooper, ’82 vs. Hardy-Weeks-Fielder, ‘05                           AB       BA       HR       RBI ’82                   1955    .315     80        306 ’05                   791      .247     24        102 We love the potential of this young infield, but before we overhype, let’s put into perspective what the group has achieved so far: Nothing yet. Fielder barely played last year, and Weeks and Hardy suffered through typical growing pains. The match the Paul Molitor/Robin Yount/Cecil Cooper triumvirate that led the Brewers to the playoffs 24 years ago, these guys have their work cut out for them. Should be interesting to see if they can approach those gaudy numbers. Outlook: In this age where money talks in baseball and teams build champions through free agency, you have to love a story like this, a team that augmented its home grown talent with smart trades and signings. The Brewers have done just that, and this should be the year that it begins to pay dividends. The Crew is primed for a playoff run, but I’m thinking they are about one good starting pitcher and two key relievers away. 2007 could be very special in Milwaukee. Prediction: 87-75 (2005 Record: 81-81)

3. HOUSTON ASTROS

Hot Player: I actually met and spoke at some length with C Brad Ausmus a couple years ago in the visitor’s locker room in Montreal. He was Billy Bean’s roommate, you know, and really the nicest of guys. A class act, and stunningly handsome. Who Would Have Guessed: There is clearly a segment of the Astros fan base hoping that Jeff Bagwell is too hurt to play this year. Houston fans must be torn, given how much Bags has meant to the team over the years. But a Bagwell just healthy enough to start at first really throws this team into chaos. Suddenly Lance Berkman gets shifted back to the outfield, and the team has to find playing time for CF Willy Taveras as well as veteran Preston Wilson and slugger Jason Lane. Simply put, it’s probably time for Bagwell to step aside. Soon to join him is 2B Craig Biggio, who hit a career-high 26 homers last year but is now 40. It appears Clemens may have pitched his last game as well. All in all it feels like the end of an era down in Houston, and after their dramatic ascent to the World Series last year, that’s a bit sad. Pitching Issues: For any problems Bagwell may present, it’s nothing compared to what’s going on with the team’s pitching staff. Beyond ace Roy Oswalt and the incredible Andy Pettitte, this group appears a bit thin. Brandon Backe has never found the consistency to be a regular-season asset, and Wandy Rodriguez and Ezequiel Astacio are young and have yet to succeed in the big leagues. While Brad Lidge is arguably the best closer in the NL, this group may be hard pressed to get the ball to him with a lead when Oswalt and Pettitte are not on the mound. Inside The Numbers: Astros W-L by starting pitcher, ‘05                                                 W-L     Pct. Oswalt/Pettitte                          43-25   .632     All other starters                       46-48   .489 Expect this trend to continue this year. When Oswalt and Pettitte pitched, the team won at a .632 clip last year. When they didn’t, the team was under .500. Oddly enough, that included Roger Clemens. The Astros were a horrendous 14-17 when Clemens took the hill despite his sub-2.00 ERA. Outlook: Yes, the Astros were incredible in the second half last year. But that fact doesn’t hide what is true about this team, which is that there are a number of holes here. Houston was shut out an astounding 17 times last year, more astounding if you consider where they play. Preston Wilson should help the offense, but face it, the Nationals were still the league’s worst offense after Wilson arrived there. A return to the World Series seems like a major long shot. Prediction: 82-80 (2005 Record: 89-73)

4. CHICAGO CUBS

Hot Player: 2B Todd Walker is quite something to look at, with or without stubble. He’s an underrated player, too, and has been for a bunch of years now. Be Vewy Quiet: With the White Sox finally winning a championship, there’s been very little talk about the Cubs this offseason. And when there has been talk, it’s tended to be about the health of their brittle duo, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. But beyond those two, there are some very intriguing things happening on the north side. Most notably, it’s the acquisition of leadoff hitter Juan Pierre from the Marlins. A guy who can get on base for the team’s big boppers, 1B Derrick Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez, could be huge for the Cubs. Another nice and nearly silent addition was OF Jacque Jones, whose bat might be well suited for Wrigley Field. Last season, we probably saw the best of Lee (.335-46-107), which isn’t to say he’s a flash in the pan. Hardly. But we probably have not yet seen the best of Ramirez, who is an injury risk but has 40-homer power if he can stay healthy. It’s hard to imagine the Cubs sneaking up on anybody, but the relative silence has been intriguing. We’re Hunting Playoffs: A lot will come down to whether Kerry Wood ever settles down and gets healthy. Not sure what’s wrong with Wood now (how do you keep track?), but if there’s a player more certain to come down with a case of Housewife’s Knee this season, I don’t know him. Ditto Mark Prior and Widow’s Neck. It’s almost criminal how much talent the two have, and without them, it’s hard to see soon-to-be 40-year-old Greg Maddux and Glendon Rusch leading this team to the playoffs, no matter how good the middle of the lineup is. Inside The Numbers: Mark Prior by count, ’03-‘05                         Opp. BA          Opp. SLG 0-0                   .378                 .667 W/ 2 strikes      .156                 .262 Random fact: Mark Prior is relatively easy to hit IF you can connect with his first pitch. Just don’t let him get way ahead of you. With any two-strike count, Prior holds opponents to a .156 average. Outlook: It’s too big a load on the shoulders of Greg Maddux and co. Without Prior and Wood, there are simply too many question marks after Maddux and Zambrano and the Cubs are unlikely to overcome them, even with arguably the best power at the corner positions in baseball. This doesn’t look like it’s the Cubbies year. Prediction: 76-86 (2005 Record: 79-83)

5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Hot Player: The Pirates hope this guy is the new incarnation of Omar Moreno at the top of the order. Chris Duffy is a center fielder with speed to burn and if any team is in need of a catalyst, this is it. The Children Are the Future: This Pirates team is built right. Pittsburgh has a core of very talented young players (Jason Bay, Ryan Doumit, Zach Duke), and during the offseason they added a trio of excellent older role models who know how to win. Sean Casey may not have a lot of power for a first baseman, but he’s a great clubhouse addition, as is 3B Joe Randa. Jeromy Burnitz keeps on hitting home runs everywhere he goes, and has done a great job mentoring younger players in his last two stops, Chicago and Colorado. The team is defensively superior up the middle, with a stellar double play combination in SS Jack Wilson and 2B Jose Castillo, and fast with Chris Duffy manning center. They have a bevy of young, talented southpaws on the hill, led by the enigmatic Oliver Perez who is either one of baseball’s best or worst pitchers, hard to tell. Those are elements that should have Pittsburgh fans excited soon, if not immediately. Hell is for Children: Unfortunately, as things stand this team will be a little short on run production. The Casey/Castillo/Wilson/Randa infield combined for 45 home runs, or about the number Albert Pujols will hit for division rival St. Louis. Burnitz will pick up some of the slack in the outfield, as will the outstanding Bay, but is a subpar offense and an untested pitching staff enough in this division? One of the best stories of last year was Zach Duke (8-2, 1.81), who has dominated at every level despite having less-than-overpowering stuff. He seems like the kind of pitcher who shouldn’t have the kind of success he always has. Inside The Numbers: Zach Duke against top hitters, ‘05                           #3 batters         #4 batters         All others Opp. BA          .194                 .176                 .273 K Pct.              25%                 24%                 17% Talk about an impressive stat for a rookie. Zach Duke was actually more dominant against the league’s best hitters, holding No. 3 and 4 hitters to under a .200 average and striking out about 1 in 4 of them. Just imagine what would happen if Duke improved his intensity against other hitters. Just in case you thought the above was a fluke: Duke help opponents to .087 (2-for-23) in close and late situations and .186 with runners in scoring position. Outlook: For a team that won just 67 games last year, the prognosis for this year isn’t so bad. Expect the Pirates to be better as the young players mature. If good Oliver Perez shows up, that will certainly help. Just don’t expect them to contend quite yet. A few more bats are needed in the middle of the order. Prediction: 75-87 (2005 Record: 67-95)

6. CINCINNATI REDS

Hot Player: My boyfriend Chuck is partial to former Diamondbacks players, and that’s what IF Matt Kata is, a handsome utility player who won’t see a lot of action in Cincy’s lineup. I would have gone with Rich Aurilia, but I’ll hold off on using my veto power since Kata is a cutie. Help Wanted: Seeking baseball players with good power, limited defensive skill and a penchant for whiffing. No experience necessary. No pitchers, especially closers, need apply. Equal opportunity employer. That’s how it’s been with the Reds, but times may be changing. After years of being able to count on loads of questionable moves by the Reds, new GM Wayne Krivsky prizes pitching and defense, hence the trade of all-or-nothing power prospect Willy Mo Pena for pitcher Bronson Arroyo. Instead the team will install Scott Hatteberg at first, a strong defender, and move Adam Dunn back to the outfielder, an improvement over Pena. Could it be the Reds are evolving? Not fully. The Reds struck out over 1,300 times last year, more than 100 more than any other team. And new 3B Edwin Encarnacion can hit the ball to the moon and struck out 60 times in 211 at-bats last year, so he may add to the total. So it’s not as though you won’t recognize this team. And they still feature Eric Milton (8-15, 6.47, 40 HR allowed) mid-rotation, a year after he turned in one of the worst seasons in major league history last year. So anyway they’re still our Reds. Signs of the Apocalypse: The Arroyo trade heads the list. Just where do the Reds get off, trading for a pitcher who actually may get some batters out? Don’t they know what they’re doing to the first draft of my preview, where I likened the team to a good slow pitch softball squad? With Arroyo and Aaron Harang at the top of the rotation, the Reds have the beginnings of a solid rotation. Thankfully, they don’t have the endings of one. Lefties Dave Williams was barely adequate in a pitcher’s park in Pittsburgh and allows a boat load of home runs. And if David Weathers remains the teams closer, he will be the closer with the least dominant stuff in baseball. So there’s still some hope that the apocalypse may be averted and the Reds will remain at or near the bottom of the NL Central. Inside The Numbers: Reds’ free-swinging offense, ’02-‘05                                     ’02       ’03       ’04       ‘05 Ks                                1188    1326    1335    1303 ML Rank                     29        30        30        30 These Reds have led the league in strikeouts each of the last three years. The year before, the Cubs were the only team worse. Don’t expect a major improvement this year, with Dunn and Encarnacion almost guaranteed to be at or near the top of the league. Outlook: Jokes aside, there are good things happening in Cincy. SS Felipe Lopez is the real deal and Encarnacion may be, too. Ken Griffey Jr. is coming off his first healthy season in since landing in Cincinnati, and showed he can still hit. Austin Kearns is awaiting a chance to breakout. The team will score, but they will inevitably struggle on the mound until they develop a few more arms of consequence. Prediction: 74-88 (2005 Record: 73-89