Baseball

Related: 2006 season overview

By Bill Konigsberg
For Outsports.com

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
 

1. NEW YORK METS

Hot Player: He’s got the looks, he’s got the swing, and now Xavier Nady has a starting job in the Mets outfield. What’s not to like? Start Spreadin’ the News?: Frank Sinatra’s lyrics are usually associated with the Yankees, but there are plenty of folks who think this is the Mets year to shine in New York, New York. Trades and signings brought in a slugging first baseman in Carlos Delgado, an unhittable closer in Billy Wagner, and some unheralded key components in RF Xavier Nady, and C Paul LoDuca. Stir in young phenoms like 3B David Wright and SS Jose Reyes and the Mets have a rather exciting concoction, especially on offense. Wright is the most electrifying 23-year-old in the game, with skills to become a Hall of Fame-type player. For all Reyes’ detractors – there are many who say he doesn’t walk enough for a leadoff hitter – there aren’t many players capable of stealing 70 bases and after he stole 60 last year, 70 or more seems entirely possible. Area of Major Concern: If there’s an Achilles’ heel here, it’s the pitching staff. Pedro Martinez is still an ace, though his health is a concern, and Tom Glavine really isn’t ace material anymore. He’s 40 now, and it’s hard to imagine him improving on his 13 wins from last year. It’s up to young Aaron Heilman (5-3, 3.17) and Victor Zambrano (7-12, 4.17) to take additional steps forward this year if this team is going to finally get past the Braves in the East. Inside The Numbers: Mets vs. NL East, ‘05                         W-L     Pct.      vs. Braves        6-13     .316     vs. rest             32-23   .582       Even before the Mets seemingly improved during the offseason, this was a team that was on the verge of being significantly better last year. Against a very solid division, the team played at a .580 clip, and if not for losing 13-of-19 to the Braves, perhaps this team has a different fate. The Mets finished six games out of the Wild Card Spot, seven behind the Braves. Outlook: Like a lot of teams, the Mets’ chances hinge on their pitching staff. More than last year, it’s clear this team will score some runs. But how far along are the team’s young pitchers? If Heilman and Zambrano come of age in ’06, the Mets could go a long way toward its first division title since 2000. Here’s thinking they’ll do just that. Prediction: 91-71 (2005 Record: 83-79)

2. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Hot Player: I was truly shocked when my boyfriend Chuck sent me a picture of a player who wasn’t Pat Burrell, since when I met him, Burrell’s picture was his laptop’s wallpaper. But apparently IF Alex Gonzalez strikes his fancy now. He’ll likely get a chance to play at 3B in place of the injured David Bell. Best Kept Secret: No one is talking about the Phillies. Every conversation about the NL East seems to discount this team, despite their 88-74 mark last season. It’s not so clear why. Yes, Jim Thome is gone, but he was a non-factor last year because of injuries. So are Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla, neither of whom lit things up last year either. Billy Wagner’s loss withstanding, this team will look a lot like they did last year, only with a gritty center fielder who seems built for this team and this city in Aaron Rowand. They’ll score runs this year, tons of them. So how do you possess arguably the best offense in the league and get no mention in the playoff picture? Is their pitching that bad? Quiet Competence: Perhaps Ryan Howard continues his ascent as an elite 1B. Ditto Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins at 2B and SS. The Phillies may well lead the league in runs scored, especially given how Citizens Bank Park played last year. But the question is whether the pitching staff will be good enough to keep every home game from ending 9-8. Some disagree, but I see good things here, good enough for the Phillies to contend. Brett Myers took a huge step forward in his fourth season, finishing with 208 strikeouts and a very impressive 3.72 ERA. Jon Lieber is the definition of consistent, and Cory Lidle is steady if unspectacular. The key guy may be sidearm hurler Ryan Madson, making the jump to the starting rotation. He has the stuff to be dominant, and if he is, this team could make some serious noise in the NL East. Inside The Numbers: ’05 Phillies W-L when… …Ryan Howard has more than one hit: 17-6* …Ryan Howard hits home run: 16-6  *including 14-0 through August 26th  Talk about a catalyst. Through Aug. 26, the Phillies were 14-0 when their rookie first baseman had a multi-hit game. They finished the year 17-6, which isn’t too shabby either. Simply put, when Howard contributed, the Phillies tended to win. It was enough to allow the team to part with Jim Thome. Outlook: After two years in which the Phillies were the offseason talk of the league, it’s been nice for the team to avoid all the speculation. Let everyone talk about the Mets and the Braves. Just don’t go into Philadelphia thinking these guys will roll over. I foresee a whole lot of Jimmy Rollins scampering around the base paths this summer in Philly. Prediction: 89-73 (2005 Record: 88-74)

3. ATLANTA BRAVES

Hot Player: My vote for best looking ballplayer alive goes to Jeff Francoeur, and apparently I’m not the only one who feels that way. Great smile, boasting a confidence most young players don’t deserve to have. Francoeur is just about flawless in my book. Stop Saying That: “Whatever you do, ‘don’t bet against the Braves.’ ” Type that last clause into Google, in quotes, and you’ll find 17 unique matches. Think of all of the other ways to say that, yet 17 different authors said it that way. That makes the phrase not quite a cliché, but close. I think 20 Google matches is the mark of a cliché. What the hell. I’m a rebel. I’ll bet against the Braves continuing their streak of NL East titles, and I’ll do it with a Francoeur-like smile. Here’s why: Because everything points to them being perfectly fine. In recent years, everyone has prognosticated a decline because the post-Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz pitching staff looked shaky, or with Chipper Jones on the decline they just didn’t seem to have that one big bat they could count on. Not so this year. Jones appears to be healthy again, and primed for a big year. Last year Andruw Jones showed he could swat 50 homers. And young Kyle Davies has the team more excited than it has been about a young pitcher in many years. Jinx: So I’m picking the Braves for second in the NL East because that’s how baseball is, totally unpredictable. It makes about as much sense as their division crown made last year. What will happen? Dunno. Francoeur quits baseball and signs up to make a string of Falcon movies. Andruw Jones runs into the wall in center. Maybe Chipper fouls one off his foot again. John Smoltz compares a gay guy to someone who wants to marry his dog and gets bitch slapped. Chris Reitsma can’t figure out how to close out games and the team blows 15 saves. Any of these things could be enough to give the Mets the edge in an increasingly tight division. Who knows? Inside The Numbers: NL Ranks by year, Braves                         ’00       ’01       ’02       ’03       ’04       ‘05 Runs                 6          13        10        1          T5        4 Runs allowed    1          1          1          9          3          5 Win Pct.           T2        T5        1          1          2          2 This team just wins. It hasn’t mattered if they struggle with the plate, as in 2001. It doesn’t matter if the pitching falters, as in 2003. They simply find ways. Outlook: The Baby Braves are strong and even after all these years getting stronger. Francoeur is a superstar in the making with one of baseball’s sweetest swings. The return of SS Edgar Renteria to the national league has success written all over it.  If Smoltz can stay healthy and keep his mouth shut, he’s still the ace this team needs, and he leads a staff that is probably good enough to overcome the team’s lack of bullpen strength. Still, I have to stick to my guns. They’re plenty good enough to win this time, so they’ll finish third. Prediction: 89-73 (2005 Record: 90-72)

4. WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Hot Player: Wow, whoever put this team together is really not gay. The team picture looks a little like 4 a.m. at the D.C. Eagle when they turn the lights on. Don’t lie, you’ve been there. And I’m going home alone, thank you very much. Not a terribly sexy crew, but I’ll go with UT Marlon Anderson, who wears his uniform real nice. Smells Like…: A really questionable trade. A biggie-sized flub that could have been prevented with just a smidge of communication. Sniff, sniff… do I smell Jim Bowden? Trader Jim! I knew it was you. The Alfonso Soriano deal had Bowden written all over it. Gutsy, yes, and sure the Nationals needed a power bat. But shouldn’t you ask a second baseman whether he’ll move to the outfield before pulling the trigger on such a huge deal? Crisis averted for the moment, as Soriano has finally agreed to play in left field. But stay tuned. If this is the same Jim Bowden we know and love, more loony stuff is forthcoming this year in Washington. We’re permanently sore with the Nationals since they did not offer Youppi! a job after the team moved from Montreal. Who is the team’s mascot now? Ann Coulter? …4th Place: The Nationals surprised everyone last year by coming out and showcasing one of the league’s best pitching staffs for a good portion of the season. Scoring runs was a problem, as RFK Stadium proved to be more of a pitcher’s park. So the Soriano move makes sense, especially since Preston Wilson signed elsewhere. But even with Soriano, this team needs more pop. To that end, the Nationals are counting on Ryan Zimmerman (.397 in 58 AB), a phenom whom the Nationals drafted last June out of college, to man third base and bring a little power. It may be a bit early to expect that much from him. The team also needs 1B Nick Johnson (.289-15-74) to continue to develop his bat. If he doesn’t, and if Zimmerman doesn’t shine right away, runs may be hard to come by again in Washington. Inside The Numbers: Two halves of ’05 season, Nationals                                     1st half              2nd half W-L                             52-36               29-45 BA                               .259                 .243 Runs/Gm                      4.1                   3.8 ERA                             3.88                 3.86       Things were going so well for the Nationals early last year. It didn’t matter that the team was last in runs scored; they were winning games. But then it all went south in the second half, and oddly, their pitching was even better ERA wise. But their hitting was also significantly worse. A .243 average just won’t get it done. Outlook: All the talk about hitting notwithstanding, the big question here has to do with the bullpen. Can a staff of Livan Hernandez, John Patterson, Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas and Ryan Drese carry a team? Patterson is emerging as a star, but Ortiz and Armas have been career disappointments, and Drese hasn’t shown the consistency to bring his game to the next level. It would appear that of all the problems, the pitching may be the biggest issue the Nationals face this year. Prediction: 71-91 (2005 Record: 81-81)

5. FLORIDA MARLINS

Hot Player: Kid can flat out tear the stitching off the ball. C Josh Willingham may become one of baseball’s best hitting catchers, and apparently Chuck wouldn’t kick him out of bed for eating crackers. Comforting to know. This is a Test: Quick. Name five Marlins pitchers. Four? Three, anybody? I didn’t think so. If you were able to do that, consider yourself a Marlins fanatic or a baseball geek with an outrageous amount of time on your hands. As one of those, I can tell you that it’s not pretty. After this fire sale, Marlins fans are bluer than Katherine Harris’ eye shadow. Since you asked, beyond Dontrelle Willis here are your projected Marlins starters: Brian Moehler, Sergio Mitre, Jason Vargas, Josh Johnson. The last three have thrown a combined 206 major league innings so far in their careers. They are the least experienced staff in the big leagues, and what’s difficult about it all is that they aren’t young with huge upside. There isn’t a likely future ace among them, outside of Willis. The Great Unknown: Also known as what kind of offensive output the Marlins will get from their kids this year. RF Jeremy Hermida is considered a future star, and possibly ready this year to do some things. 1B Mike Jacobs was a monster in limited action with the Mets last year, but could just as easily be Kevin Maas as Albert Pujols. We just don’t know yet. SS Hanley Ramirez looks great this spring, but he isn’t expected to be fully ready for the majors yet. Miguel Cabrera is one of baseball’s finest hitters. But who in their right mind will pitch to him, unless the kids come through? Inside the Numbers: Projected ’06 Marlins starters with 100+ AB last year:                                     AB       BA       HR       RBI Miguel Cabrera            613      .323     33        116 Mike Jacobs                 100      .310     11        23   Great numbers for both players. It’s just too bad there aren’t more of them. I can’t remember the last time a team had six players in their opening day lineup who hadn’t had 100 at-bats the previous year. Never? Outlook: It can’t help but be ugly. This level of inexperience will be exciting at times in April, get old by May, and be absolutely horrifying by August. Prediction: 44-118 (2005 Record: 83-79)