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Rob:
BCS
Championship Game
Jan. 8, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Ohio State vs. Florida
When USC shockingly lost to UCLA in early December,
the BCS national championship game lost a ton of its
luster. Sure, it will be interesting to see if Ohio
State can complete its magical ride to an unbeaten
season. The Buckeyes were ranked #1 in my preseason
Outsports Top 25 poll and have remained there all
year long. But one can’t help but think of how
exciting an Ohio State-USC game would have been.
The
fact that Florida has reached the national title
game is a surprise. Give the Gators credit for
playing a tough schedule and making it to the
championship game so early in Urban Meyer’s tenure.
It’s hard to overlook several close calls for
Florida though. The Gators struggled, despite
winning, in several key contests and five of their
wins were by a touchdown or less. Twice, Florida
won games by a single point (over Tennessee and
South Carolina). A woeful Vanderbilt team came
within a whisker of making a complete 4th
quarter comeback, falling to Florida 25-19. Simply
put, Florida survived game after game this season.
On
the other hand, Ohio State dominated its opponents
most of the season. Troy Smith was the overwhelming
choice for the Heisman Trophy, throwing for over
2,500 yards and 30 touchdowns versus just 5
interceptions. Prior to the finale against
Michigan, no one had scored more than 17 points
against Ohio State’s best defensive team in years.
While the Buckeyes’ schedule wasn’t a juggernaut,
there were still tough battles along the way,
including a highly-anticipated game at Texas, where
OSU rolled to a 24-7 win.
Ohio State’s unheralded offensive line has been a
huge key, and I think it will again be the
game-changing factor in the BCS title game. Behind
the massive OL, the Buckeyes will be nearly
unstoppable. If it isn’t Smith doing the damage,
it’s going to be speedy wide receiver Ted Ginn, Jr.,
running back Antonio Pittman (who rushed for a quiet
1,100+ yards) or talented wideout Anthony Gonzalez.
Florida hasn’t faced a team this physical or this
talented all season.
I
don’t think there’s any way Florida can hold the
Ohio State offense to fewer than 30 points. And I
can’t possibly see OSU giving up more than 3
touchdowns to a Gators offense that sometimes had
trouble scoring even in a 12-1 season.
It’s rare that a national title game looks like a
potential blowout but I wouldn’t be surprised to see
it happen this year.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Florida 20.
Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 1, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Boise State vs. Oklahoma
Hardly anyone outside the state of Idaho is giving
Boise State much of a chance to beat Oklahoma. I’m
one of the few.
Based on history, there’s no way the Sooners and
Broncos should be meeting on the football field, let
alone in a BCS game on New Year’s Day. However, the
beauty about college football is that games aren’t
played on paper, and history doesn’t dictate the
winner.
The
Broncos aren’t flashy by any means. They just win.
Running back Ian Johnson may be the best player that
no one paid attention to this season. Johnson ran
for over 1,600 yards and led the nation with 24
rushing touchdowns despite missing a game with an
injury and playing much of the season banged up.
Boise State went 5-0 this season against bowl teams,
outscoring them a whopping 180-78. The fact that
the Broncos were at their best against the best
teams on the schedule is important.
Oklahoma is expected to have Adrian Peterson back at
full strength for the first time in a couple of
months. OU would be favored even without Peterson,
but with him back and adding another dimension to an
already strong offense, things will be tough for the
Broncos. But I am not counting out the Broncos. In
fact, I think they just may finish the season 13-0
by pulling off the major upset.
Prediction: Boise State 28, Oklahoma 24.
Rose Bowl
Jan. 1, 2007, 4:30 p.m. ET
USC vs. Michigan
It’s USC-Michigan in what could actually be the best
bowl game of the year. Both teams are disappointed
to be in Pasadena quite honestly as each had
national title aspirations dashed in their final
games. It will be interesting to see how each team
responds.
I’ve never seen a Pete Carroll-coached Trojan team
look as mediocre as the way they did against UCLA.
I don’t foresee a poor effort from USC this time.
Michigan, meanwhile, played its heart out in the
finale against Ohio State but came up short. That’s
an even tougher way to lose than USC. My gut tells
me that the Wolverines may have left it all on the
field at Ohio State and could run into trouble
against the Trojans.
Which team will have the worst hangover?Michigan.
Prediction: USC 31, Michigan 24.
My non-BCS bowl pick:
Hawaii Bowl
Dec. 24, 2006, 8 p.m. ET
Hawaii vs. Arizona State
If
you like offense (and that’s really what these bowl
games should be about, since there’s no Division I-A
playoff), this is the bowl game for you. Hawaii
quarterback
Colt Brennan is only two touchdown passes away
from breaking the all-time NCAA record for TD passes
in a season, currently held by David Klinger of
Houston at 54.
Brennan has thrown for 4,990 yards and leads the
NCAA in nearly all passing stats. The Warriors
offense can be sensational at times, and playing an
Arizona State team with lame duck coach Dirk Koetter
is going to mean offensive fireworks. ASU finished
the year with a nice win over rival Arizona, while
Hawaii lost a heartbreaker to Oregon State. Look
for the Warriors to put on a nice show this
Christmas Eve.
Prediction: Hawaii 45, Arizona State 28. |
Richie:
BCS
Championship Game
Jan. 8, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Ohio State vs. Florida
For all the
controversy that ended the season, Ohio State has a
chance to prove the article posted in
The Onion
is true: No one deserves to step onto the same field
as The Buckeyes this season. From start to finish,
Buckeyes were ranked #1. With an offense that
scores 36.8 ppg while racking up over 409 ypg, it’s
going to be tough to stop Troy Smith and the
Buckeyes. Can the Florida Gators do what no other
team this season has been able to do and beat the
Buckeyes?
To answer that
question, we’ll need to compare the two teams
head-to-head in the various categories.
Defensively, both teams are great, though Florida
allowed just one more field goal per game than the
Buckeyes (10.4 ppg vs. 13.5). Both teams are
allowing roughly the same yards per game as the
other, but Ohio State’s defense produced three more
touchdowns via interception than Florida’s. The
combination of fewer points per game allowed and
more defensive scores gives the defensive edge to
Ohio State.
On offense, Ohio
State seems to have the inside edge as well, scoring
eight more points per game than Florida. The yards
per game and breakdown of rush yards and pass yards
are pretty much dead-even. The Buckeyes have almost
a 19% better chance of converting on third down
(51.3% vs. 43.2%) than the Gators. In a game where
defense will likely decide who wins, you got to like
the team that can convert on third downs. Florida
is at a disadvantage when it comes to penalties as
well racking up twice the number of flags than Ohio
States per game (8.46 vs. 4.75).
At first glance it
looks like Florida has a huge edge in the special
team return yards, collecting 510 on the season.
However, the average yards per return is only 10.4
vs. Ohio State’s 10.1. Ohio State is 3 yards better
per kickoff return than Flordia, averaging 19.1
yards per kickoff return.
What Florida might be
lacking on the field in terms of player ability, the
Gators are not lacking in style. Check out pictures
of #10 Eric Wilbur before the game on Jan. 8. You’ll
be quite happy.
Prediction: Ohio
State wins their second national championship this
decade, 28-17.
Sugar Bowl
Jan. 3 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Notre Dame vs. LSU
On the surface, this
looks like an even matchup between two ranked
teams. Both teams are sporting 10-2 records, both
teams rack up the same number of offensive yards per
game (415.2), and both teams score almost 33 points
per game. So what gives? Why is LSU ranked #4 in
the nation while Notre Dame is #11 and why will LSU
win this game?
When you dig further
into the team statistics, Notre Dame seems to be the
team that will come up short. Against ranked teams
this season, Notre Dame was only able to beat then
ranked #19 Penn State while getting beat badly by
Michigan and USC. In contrast, LSU went 1-2 against
Top 5 teams, beating Arkansas but losing to Florida
and Auburn, and also beat #8 Tennessee. If you look
at the other opponents for both LSU and Notre Dame,
it’s obvious that LSU’s schedule was slightly
tougher with the opponents’ records averaging 7-5
vs. 6-6. Down the stretch, LSU beat their last five
opponents, while Notre Dame got crushed by USC in
their season ender which is probably still weighing
heavily on the minds of the Irish.
If you’re looking for
a game with eye candy, Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn
surely will not disappoint. He’s put up some good
numbers on the season, almost 3,300 yards and 35 TDs,
but still hasn’t won a big game for the Irish this
year.
What will happen in
this game? During the season JaMarcus Russell has
put up good, not great, numbers for the Tigers and
will need to avoid throwing interceptions to give
Dwayne Bowe and Craig Davis a chance to chew up that
rotten Notre Dame secondary. I think that will be
how the game plays out. The LSU receivers will make
some big plays early to keep Notre Dame at bay.
Prediction: The
Irish go on to lose their ninth bowl game in a row,
32-24.
Orange Bowl,
Jan. 2, 2007, 8 p.m. ET
Louisville vs. Wake Forest
This will probably be
the least watched BCS game of the season. The
Louisville Cardinals found a backdoor way into the
game when Rutgers posted a second Big East loss of
the season on Dec. 2. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons
won the ACC championship game in a low-scoring,
boring fashion. Wake Forest is having a great
season, and Jim Grobe was honored by the AP with the
coach of the year award. But none of those
accolades matter. What does matter is how long the
Demon Deacons defense can hold up against the
immense passing attack which will be unleashed by
the Cardinals.
On the season, Wake
Forest gave up 14.7 points and 312 yards per game
(208 passing, 104 rushing). Compare that to the
Louisville offense average game stats (39 points,
486 yards with 295 through the air), and things
don’t look pretty. Couple that with Wake’s
inability to score on offense (22 points per game,
ranked #76 in scoring offense), things don’t look
good for the ACC in this game.
While Wake might not
be able to win this game, Riley Skinner gets the
stud of the game award. Skinner, who was not the
starting QB at the beginning of the season, can only
be described by the word “hot”. Nothing else comes
close. Unfortunately since he’s a freshman, not too
many pictures of him can be found on the Internet.
You’ll have to tune into the game to see some good
shots of him.
Prediction:
Louisville beats up on Wake Forest, 42-28.
Chick-fil-A Bowl
Dec. 30 2006, 8 p.m. ET
Georgia vs. Virginia Tech
Formerly known as the
Peach Bowl, the Chick-fil-A Bowl has recently been
one of the most intriguing, close games of the bowl
season with most games over the past 10 years being
decided by fewer than 10 points. This game,
however, is not shaping up to have that type of
outcome.
Since their second
loss of the season, the Hokies have been taking down
the competition in amazing style allowing only 30
points total and not giving up a touchdown in the
last 12 quarters of play. Georgia’s offense has
been inconsistent this season when it comes to
scoring, especially against ranked teams. The
Hokies offense hasn’t scored much this season
either, but when your defense gives up on average
9.3 points per game, your offense just needs to
score a couple times a game and that will be
enough. Georgia will try to run the ball to open up
the passing lanes, but it will be very difficult.
This game will be
great fun to watch from a football standpoint, but
not really from an eye candy point of view. Both
teams have a large number of good looking guys, but
no one really sticks out. So tune in to watch some
great defensive plays by both teams.
Prediction:
Virginia Tech’s defense scores at least once on an
INT run back for a TD and the Hokies win, 23-6. |
Rob Rochholz is a Fresno
State (TheOtherFSU) alum and San Francisco Giants
fan who works in graphic design and lives in San
Francisco. He's a former sportswriter at The Fresno
Bee, where he covered the WAC, Pac-10 and Big West
conferences. A fan of snowboarding and reality TV,
Rob correctly predicted in his August 2004
Outsports.com College Football Preview that USC
would defeat Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl some five
months later. 
Richie Weldon has been
following college football since 1995, his freshman
year at Virginia Tech. An avid Hokies fan, Richie
tries not to let that influence his opinions on
other teams (most of the time). Seattle is the place
he calls home now, and almost every Saturday during
the fall he gets together with other Hokies to watch
the games. Richie is a software developer. 
