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Our experts say USC's the 1

Related: 2007's burning questions

By Richie Weldon

Richie Weldon has been following college football since 1995, his freshman year at Virginia Tech.  An avid Hokies fan, Richie tries not to let that influence his opinions on other teams (most of the time). Seattle is the place he calls home now, and almost every Saturday during the fall he gets together with other Hokies to watch the games.  Richie is a software developer.

By Rob Rochholz

Rob Rochholz is a Fresno State (TheOtherFSU) alum and San Francisco Giants fan who works in graphic design and lives in San Francisco. He's a former sportswriter at The Fresno Bee, where he covered the WAC, Pac-10 and Big West conferences.

1. USC

Who could possibly pick against the Trojans this year? They’re loaded with talent, have a favorable schedule, a suffocating defense, and one of the best coaches in the game. The Oregon Ducks have the best chance of wreaking havoc in the land of Troy on Oct. 27; The Trojans must play in Eugene after a trip to South Bend. (Sorry Golden Domers, but you won’t beat a Pete Carroll coached team with a freshman QB and only five returning starters on defense.)

1. USC

Many people, including me, thought USC was the best team in the country a year ago. One win away from playing for the national title, the Trojans laid a giant egg against UCLA. This season looks to be one about redemption, and I think USC has what it takes to get it done. The schedule is brutal and you have to admire a program that schedules non-conference road tilts at Nebraska and Notre Dame.

2. LSU

As it stands now on paper, the Bengal Banded Baton Rouge Boys have the schedule, the team, the coach, and the drive to make a run for the coveted glass football trophy. The Tigers have five away games, with the only tough one being at Alabama. With a stellar defense and a fantastic offense lead by Matt Flynn, the ground supporting Tiger Stadium will be shaking non-stop from August ‘till January as fans hope to storm their way to New Orleans for the BCS title game.

2. LSU

With tons of returning talent and a favorable schedule, the Tigers are the pick to win the Southeastern Conference and challenge USC for the national championship. Rarely do you find a team getting all its toughest opponents at home, but LSU managed it. Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas all have to travel to Death Valley.

3. Texas

Would there life after Vince Young? That was the biggest question on the minds of the Longhorns entering the 2006 season. Then the hot, hot, hot Colt McCoy showed up to play; 2,570 yards and 29 touchdowns later, the Texas Nation feels great pride knowing they have another national championship caliber team. There are some holes to sure up on defense with only six returning starters, and the defensive backs may be the weakness that Oklahoma exploits to Hook them Horns for the first time since 2004. If CB Chykie Brown and Deon Beasley are able to play bigger than their experience shows, the Longhorns can change their plane tickets from Glendale to New Orleans.

3. Michigan

This looks like the year the Wolverines will beat Ohio State. And if that happens, UM should be the Big Ten champ, provided that Wisconsin doesn’t throw a monkey wrench into things. The Wolverines don’t travel outside the states of Michigan, Illinois or Wisconsin this season.
 


 
 

4. West Virginia

2007 is a pivotal year for the Mountaineers and the Big East. Riding last season’s momentum, West Virginia will try and prove they were better than their 11-2 record and non-BCS bowl berth. Rich Rodriguez’ seventh team in Morgantown features 15 returning starters (seven offense, eight defense), a schedule that plays host to Louisville on a chilly Thursday night in November, and a decent quarterback to lead the charge. WVU might have a hard time going undefeated this season as a surprise gouging by the USF Bulls. But, if they do make it through the regular season unscathed, those precious BCS points will be hard to come by if not for losses by other teams in the Top 10. It's been done before for a team from the Big East and this season may be a repeat of 1999.

4. West Virginia

Hopefully this high ranking will get Mountaineers fans off my back. I’m just going to stop reading those emails from now on if you’ve got an email address of “MorgantownFever” or “WVUrulez,” mmm kay? But seriously, WVU is loaded and this could be the year, as long as there’s not the usual slip-up in Big East play again.

5. Michigan

Chad Henne had a really good year, passing for over 2500 yards and 22 TDs in leading Michigan to an 11-2 season. The Wolverines, however, are reeling after losing bad to USC in the Rose Bowl and by three points to Ohio State in their regular season finale. This team has lots of starters to replace on defense, but early season tests against Oregon, Notre Dame, and Penn State will let us know early on if the Wolverines are for real.

5. Florida

The Gators are probably ranked too high here, but I never count out the defending national champion. Florida appears to have lost too much on defense to win another national title, but hey, look at the bright side … at least they won’t have to endure another visit to the Bush White House.

6. Oklahoma

Apart from two toss-up games (Miami on Sept. 8 and Texas on Oct. 6), there is no game Oklahoma should not win. With that said, the Sooners have 15 returning starters from a team that went 11-3, but have a suspect offense behind redshirt Freshman QB Sam Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray. Adding some more trouble into the mix, the fullback, Brody Eldridge, is only a sophomore. It is a good thing, however, the offensive line has experience and talent to match. Oklahoma will challenge Texas for the Big 12 South crown and, as usual, it will all come down to the game played at the Texas state fair.

6. Wisconsin

If there’s a team that I think will derail Michigan’s Big Ten title hopes, it’s the Badgers. In fact, I’d say Wisconsin has an outside shot at winning it all this year thanks to super soph P.J. Hill.
 

7. Florida State

Quick! What has Bobby Bowden been able to do consistently since 1976? He’s fielded teams that have beaten Virginia Tech by an average score of 31.6 – 17.5. And that represents the last 12 games. This season, however, that streak will end as FSU travels to Blacksburg for the first time since 1989. A rematch and revenge game will happen on Dec. 1 as FSU will play Virginia Tech for the ACC title game, a game which the Seminoles will win their way to the Orange Bowl.

7. California

It’s hard to remember those pre-Jeff Tedford days when the Bears stunk. Cal has loads of talent returning and a manageable schedule, highlighted by home games with USC and Tennessee. If things fall just right, the Bears’ Nov. 10 matchup with the Trojans could be the biggest game in Berkeley ever.

8. Hawaii

Mahalo, indeed! Colt Brennan is back to thrill us all both on the field and off. If Brennan can pass for over 5,500 yards and produce another 58 TDs, the Heisman Trophy could very well be his. There is not a game on Hawaii’s schedule the Warriors cannot win and could very well represent the WAC in the conference’s second ever BCS game.

8. Texas

Colt McCoy and Co. will be strong again, and only a pesky TCU squad stands in the way of an unbeaten September. I’m guessing a 10-2 regular season is in order for the Horns.

9. Virginia Tech

For Frank Beamer, it’s time to get the proverbial monkey off his back. It’s time to win back-to-back-to-back huge conference games. Nov. 1, his Hokies travel to Atlanta to take on the Yellow Jackets, then play host to Florida State followed up with Miami. That is an incredible stretch, as the Hokies will likely be 6-1 by then, with the one loss coming at the hands of LSU in a very close defensive battle. Quarterback play will need to improve over last year’s abysmal performance by Sean Glennon (11 TDs and 11 INTs) and any injury to Branden Ore will spell disaster.

9. Virginia Tech

The September schedule is odd for the Hokies with four games ranging from easy (North Carolina) to ridiculously easy (Ohio University, William & Mary). But mixed in there is a real dogfight … the Sept. 8 game at LSU. If the Hokies can pull that one off, you’d better believe that my friend Richie will have them skyrocket all the way to the top spot in his weekly Dirty Dozen.

10. South Carolina

Under Steve Spurrier, the Gamecocks have won one more game each year than in the previous year. That record will likely continue as the Gamecocks are absolutely loaded with talent on the defensive side of the ball (10 returning starters) and have a solid offense (seven returning starters) led by QB Blake Mitchell. Not many people are giving the Gamecocks enough credit this season, probably because they have three very tough road games (Georgia, LSU, and Arkansas; they should easily beat Tennessee). Nevertheless, Spurrier will find ways to make his team win its way to the SEC East title.

10. Auburn

It will be another very good, if not great, season for the Tigers, but don’t be shocked if Nick Saban has Auburn fans irate when Bama comes calling in the season finale and picks up the win.

11. Missouri

It’s time for the Tigers to make some noise! Progressively getting better since 2005, this year’s team features nine returning offensive stars including RB Tony Temple (1063 yards, seven TDs) and WR William Franklin (829 yards, six TDs, 17.3 ypc). Missouri will open 4-0 before having Nebraska come to Columbia and then traveling to Oklahoma. Split those games, and it’s likely the Tigers will be playing Oklahoma or Texas for the Big 12 title. The OOC schedule is too weak for an at-large BCS berth, but a trip to the Holiday or Alamo bowl is not out of the question. This is Gary Pinkel’s best team at Missouri.

11. Ohio State

Putting the Buckeyes in the No. 11 spot feels odd, but few teams in the country lost more talent than Ohio State. Can Jim Tressel pull off an incredible coaching job and lead OSU to consecutive league championships? It’s doubtful, especially with a brutal schedule down the stretch, facing Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan in the season’s final month.

12. Penn State

If the Nittany Lions defense was a bit more experienced, Penn State would definitely be a Top 10 team. As it stands now, however, Ohio State, Michigan, and Notre Dame will be looking to take advantage of weaknesses on the defensive line and in the secondary. During the offseason, Anthony Morelli was studying film and working on his QB play to improve the 11-8 TD-INT ratio that kept PSU from achieving greatness. This could be one of JoePa’s finest teams since the mid-1990s.

12. Hawaii

Did someone say ‘disco nap’? Plan on them this season in order to stay up and watch those late-night ESPN matchups from Honolulu where Colt Brennan tries to work that magic. The Warriors have the country’s best quarterback who will light up the scoreboard and stats sheet like no other. However, Hawaii may need a ton of points because defense has never been June Jones’ strong suit.

13. UCLA

With 20 starters back, Karl Dorrell’s team should easily find ways to win its first 10 games of the season. The last two, however, against Oregon and at USC, will either place the Bruins in New Orleans for the BCS title game, the Rose Bowl if only one victory is garnered, or the Holiday bowl if both games are lost. Regardless, if a 10-win season does not happen, it will be a disappointment for the state school of southern California.

13. Rutgers

With Ray Rice leading the way, look for the Scarlet Knights to be unbeaten heading into the October 27 game against West Virginia. Pulling off the win at home wouldn’t be a major upset, and if it happens, Rutgers may be looking at its first BCS bowl in history. The season finale against Louisville looms huge, and speaking of the Cardinals …

14. Ohio State

This is a reloading year for the Buckeyes. Gone are Troy Smith, Antionio Pittman, and Ted Ginn. [Hopefully] Gone is the memory of losing badly to Florida. But that was last year’s news. This year has a favorable schedule (OSU should start out 8-0 before traveling to Happy Valley). The defense is headlined by the Buckeye’s 2006 leading tackler and INT producer James Laurinaitis. Jim Tressel has his work cut out for him with trips to Penn State and Michigan late in the season.

14. Louisville

The Big East was the ugly stepsister of college football for years, but it’s fairly remarkable how times have changed. For the second consecutive season, the league will have three legitimate national powers fighting for the league crown. Brian Brohm remains one to watch for more than simply the obvious reasons.

15. Louisville

Louisville is suffering from the same affliction as West Virginia: a weak out-of-conference schedule. With the ratings-busting lineup of Murray State, Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, NC State, and Utah, ESPN 360 is sure to have its best season for viewership. It will be very hard to take the Cardinals seriously this season as their two tough games are at West Virginia and at USF. Yes, UL will be ranked in the Top 25 all season, but sorry Cardinal fans, enjoy the Continental Tire Bowl.

15. UCLA

The Bruins pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2006 by defeating USC. The chances of it happening again are slim, you never know. This year’s UCLA team – on paper at least – seems to be improved over last season. By Oct. 20, when Cal visits the Rose Bowl, we’ll know if the Bruins are contenders or pretenders.

16. Florida

Ahhh, Florida. Your Gators manage to go 13-1 last season, win the national title, and yet do not get respect to begin the 2007 season. With two starters returning on defense and only six on offense, it’s amazing you’ll be ranked in the Top 25 at all! So quit all your complaining! Tim Tebow will need to prove he can be an efficient passer instead of making things happen with his feet. Someone will have to step up and be the defensive leader on this team, otherwise it’ll be a long season. There are six easy wins on the schedule, so a bowl game is likely, the only question is how good of a bowl will the Gators get to enjoy.

16. Boise State

Um, hello?! Did someone forget that the Broncos have one of the nation’s top rushers returning in Ian Johnson? Boise State was much more than just the Jared Zabransky show last year, and the return of Johnson makes even the most powerful of opponents fear the blue. The Broncos have won 39 of their last 40 WAC games (the only loss being at Fresno State two years ago). BSU returns to Fresno on Oct. 26.

17. Oregon

Every few years Mike Bellotti’s team is able to put together a 10-win season. This is another one of those years, even with losses against USC and Michigan. The trip down to UCLA on Nov. 24 will decide between those teams which one is Holiday Bowl bound and which is destined for the Sun Bowl. Dennis Dixon will need to throw more TDs than INTs this year (12 and 14 last year, respectively), but with his favorite receivers Jaison Williams and Brian Paysinger returning, it should be easy to improve those numbers. And will someone, please, do something about those uniforms!

17. Penn State

I would have bet money on Anna Nicole Smith outliving Joe Paterno. Who knew?! Anyway, JoePa continues merrily along with what could be one of his better teams. Penn State will likely be in the Big Ten chase for most of the year and could be in line for a 10-win season. But, come on, a non-conference schedule that includes Florida International, Buffalo and Temple? Wow.

18. Miami, FL

The Hurricanes deserve more love than people are giving them this season. There are 16 starters returning from last year’s 7-6 team, all of whom are itching to prove they are a Top 15 team. The schedule is murderous with away games at Oklahoma, North Carolina (under Butch Davis’ purview), Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Boston College, but it is manageable. The Canes won’t win all those games, but with most of the same defense that gave up only 256 ypg and 15.5 ppg, the offense will just need to click enough at the right times to support that defense and the winds of change will be fiercely blowing out of South Florida once again.

18. TCU

The Horned Frogs have created a nice niche for themselves down in Fort Worth, but does anyone care? Their stadium often looks like a ghost town despite the fact this team is one of the best defensive squads in the country. I guess there’s your answer. Defense may win games but it doesn’t draw crowds. I think TCU has a decent shot at upsetting Texas in Austin.

19. Alabama

Is this Bama’s year? Nick Saban is the new head coach, is richly paid, and is expected to produce SEC titles for the Crimson Tide. Saban brings with him a national title (2003-LSU) and two years of NFL coaching experience. Working the offense for Saban is JR QB John Parker Wilson along with eight other returning starters. Things look good for scoring lots of points and racking up the big yards against opponents. The defense, however, is suspect with only five returning starters that allowed over 19 points per game, 4.0 yards per carry, and 15.5 yards per pass. If Bama is to challenge the favored LSU Tigers for the SEC West title, the defense will need to step it up a notch. A big notch.

19. Arkansas

Darren McFadden returns and so do the hopes of Arkansas fans for an outstanding season. After the Razorbacks were throttled 50-14 by USC at the start of last year, I had my doubts, but things quickly turned around with 10 straight wins. Arkansas seems unlikely to win the SEC West again though.

20. Georgia

Each preseason it seems like this is going to be the year for the Bulldogs. As each season progresses, Georgia finds a way to disappoint and never really rising out of the ranks of good teams to that of the national championship ones. This season looks to be another ‘great year’ for the Bulldogs as they have a difficult, but manageable, schedule and return seven starters on both sides of the ball. The problem, though, is with their starting quarterback stud Matthew Stafford. Georgia’s #7 last year threw for seven TDs, 13 INTs, and managed only 1,940 total yards. Yes, he was only a freshman, but that’s no excuse and those numbers will have to improve, as the defense lost a lot of players to graduation and the NFL.

20. Texas A&M

Five of the first six games are at home, and all appear winnable. Stephen McGee is back and should have a stellar year. If A&M can somehow pick up a win or two in the close games this time around, it could be a remarkable season. The Aggies’ three regular-season losses a year ago were by a combined 6 points.

21. Tennessee

The Vols vaunted from a losing season in 2005 to a good season in 2006 (9-4). What does 2007 have in store? How about six easy wins and six hard fought games that’s sure to keep the Volunteer nation biting many fingernails. Opening up September at California and playing at Florida two weeks later is going to be tough, but ending with home games against Louisiana-Lafayette, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt before traveling to Kentucky for the season ender should make things easier for the faithful. A second straight bowl game is quite possible. QB Erik Ainge will steal most the headlines as he passes for over 25 TDs and 3500 yards.

21. Florida State

OK, so this is actually more of a courtesy pick for my good friend Glenn, the world’s biggest FSU fan. I think the Noles are a borderline Top 25 outfit at best but at least this pick keeps me in his good graces. With road games at Florida, Virginia Tech, Boston College and Clemson, Bobby Bowden’s will need to be improved over last year’s mediocre bunch.

22. Nebraska

Bill Callahan spent the past four years developing his Cornhusker offense. Zac Taylor passed for just under 3200 yards and 26 TDs last year. Now it’s Joe Ganz and Sam Keller’s turn. Keller will likely be the starting QB after sitting out a year and transferring from Arizona State. When pass plays aren’t working, Marlon Lucky will pick up the slack and should rush the ball for over 1000 yards this season. The defensive secondary is the weak point in this Cornhusker team. Nebraska’s string of consecutive bowl games will continue despite another year without the Big 12 title.

22. Tennessee

A lot of preseason polls have the Vols rated higher but I just don’t see it. There’s a chance to prove me wrong early with the opener at Cal.

23. University of South Florida

The Bulls from Tampa are poised to make a splash in the kiddie pool known as the Big East. With only two Big East title contenders allowed to swim in the deep end (Louisville & West Virginia), the Bulls are standing on the end of the diving board ready to drop a big, fat cannonball. Jim Leavitt’s team returns 16 starters, nine of which are on offense, lead by QB Matt Grothe (2576 yards, 15 TD, 14 INTs). Don’t let those numbers fool you as Grothe is only a sophomore. Both West Virginia and Louisville play in Tampa this season and the trip up to Rutgers happens before the weather turns sour. Nine wins are certainly possible as is a victory over Auburn, West Virginia, or Louisville.

23. Boston College

Matt Ryan is one of the lesser publicized QBs in the country it seems, despite the fact he’s got some big-time skills. The Eagles are my pick to face Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game.

24. TCU

Since 2005, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs have been putting together 11 win seasons. This year that number might go up to 12 as all but the game against Texas are easily winnable. QB Marcus Jackson will need to step up quickly and fill the shoes of the departed Jeff Ballard. Fortunately RB Aaron Brown (801 yards, nine TDs) will be able to carry the load when needed. The defense is stacked with 9 returning starters from a team that allowed 2.2 yards per carry last year! The secondary should be better than the 19.1 yards per pass that was given up last year. Despite having only one loss likely, TCU’s schedule is on the weak side and will be passed over when it comes to the BCS team selections.

24. Nebraska

One of the season’s most anticipated games has to be Sept. 15 when USC travels to Lincoln. You can count on an amazing atmosphere with a lot on the line for both teams. This is the type of win Nebraska needs if it truly wants to tell the college football world that it is still a force to be reckoned with on the national stage.

25. Auburn

Auburn has one of the more difficult schedules this season, having to travel to Florida, Arkansas, LSU, and Georgia. The out-of-conference schedule is much better with only a tough game at home against the USF Bulls. Tommy Tuberville’s 11-2 record last year was amazing, especially when you look at QB Brandon Cox’s numbers (2,198 yards, 14 TDs, nine INTs, 177 rushing) and realize that not a single one of his RBs produced over 1,000 yards on the ground for the season. (The heralded Kenny Irons had only 893 yards and four TDs.) Less than half the offensive starters are returning, so it will be up to the defense to keep the games close. Auburn will continue its stretch of consecutive bowl games, but it’s unlikely to be a New Years Day bowl for these Tigers.

25. Oregon

Dennis Dixon is one of the more exciting quarterbacks I’ve seen play in person. I wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon has one of its better seasons in recent years, if only because the expectations seem to be a bit lower than usual.

 

   

 


Aug. 26, 2007