While most of the sports media is falling over themselves to say how stupid Bill Belichick is to go for it on 4th and 2, Time Magazine came out last week with their 50 Best Inventions of 2009. Number 31: The No-Punt Offense…
As Sports Illustrated explained in a recent story, Kevin Kelley, coach of the Pulaski Academy football team in Little Rock, Ark., has called for only a single punt in the past two years. Like a seasoned gambler, Kelley has figured out that punting on fourth and long near your own end zone decreases the odds of the other team’s scoring by only a relatively slim amount. So going for it will pay off in the long run: Pulaski won a state championship last year and is in the hunt this year too.
Of course, that isn’t even taking into account the fact that you might be punting to Peyton Manning! Thank heavens for all of us sports fans that in cookie-cutter sports some people are thinking unconventionally.
By the way, the Patriots went for it on 4th down this week and made it; And they had a punt from Jets territory blocked and recovered for a Jets touchdown.
on Nov 23rd, 2009 at 2:13 PM
Nice idea at the high school and flag football level, a disaster elsewhere.
And I am all for coaches going for it more on 4th down, but only when considering the circumstances. NBC did a great job breaking down 4th and 2 last night and why it was a bad call when everything is taken into account. Not sure if the segment is available online.
How rare was the 4th and 2 call? The NFL says that it was only the second time since 1991 that a team went for it on 4th and 2 or more in their own territory with less than 5 minutes to go when leading. So anyone quoting 4th down percentages were mistaken, since what Belichick did was virtually unprecedented in the last 18 years of the NFL.
on Nov 23rd, 2009 at 5:53 PM
Reading Jim’s reference to the infamous Belichick 4th and 2 decision, it just occurred to me that in the all the media coverage during the game (and in the following week) I don’t remember seeing any stats about Peyton Manning and the Colts success rate in end of game situations: trailing by a single score and needing to go 60, 70, 80 or more yards with approximately 2 minutes remaing in the game.
There seem to be stats on almost everything. Does anyone know if those stats are available anywhere?
on Nov 23rd, 2009 at 6:08 PM
I do not know the stats, but Belichick referenced the 2006 AFCCG when Manning led the Colts on an 80-yard TD drive to win the game. They got the ball with about 2:20 left and scored with 59 seconds to play.
on Nov 24th, 2009 at 4:46 AM
Did you see the Texans’ coaches play it conservative at the end of the game tonight? Cost them the game.
Mike, I don’t know. But two of the Colts’ three previous possessions:
79 yards in 1:49, TOUCHDOWN.
79 yards in 2:04, TOUCHDOWN.
The week before against Houston they trailed by 4 with 11 minutes left. The Colts’ ensuing possession:
61 yards in 3:49, TOUCHDOWN.
The week before that, they trailed the 49ers late in the third quarter. The resulting possession:
70 yards in 3:10, TOUCHDOWN.
Belichick’s genius resonated this weekend with coaches replicating his brilliant call. Hopefully the uninventive, clueless press won’t have much of an effect and coaches will keep making great, gutty, non-conventional calls like that.
on Nov 24th, 2009 at 11:36 AM
“4th and 2 or more in their own territory with less than 5 minutes to go when leading.”
Sound like a baseball stat…day games played on weekdays after a rain shower with 2 left-handed starters and prior to a full eclipse…
Who keeps these stats?? And really, what’s the significance?
on Nov 24th, 2009 at 11:49 AM
The significance is obvious. If the Colts score in those situations a very high percentage of the time, then Belichick’s decision to go for it on 4th and 2 (instead of punting) might not have been so crazy.
For example, if over the past few years Manning and the Colts march down the field for the go ahead TD over 75% of the time in that situation (trailing by less than a TD with 2 minutes remaining and over 60 yards to go), then I’d say Belichick’s decision not to punt would’ve received a lot more support. Conversely, if the Colts only succeed 35% of the time in that situation, then he’d be crazy not to punt it.
on Nov 24th, 2009 at 2:25 PM
I love how Cyd keeps calling Belichick’s call “brilliant.” Brilliant? It failed and they lost!
That’s like calling Custer’s game plan at Little Big Horn brilliant because the bugler escaped. Keep drinking the Kool Aid.
on Nov 25th, 2009 at 10:19 PM
This just in! Outsports’ Jim Buzinski reports that Patriots coach Bill Belichick has been identified in the Zapruder film as the mysterious second gunman on the grassy knoll. Not only that, Mr. Buzinski says, but Belichik was also responsible for positioning the iceberg that sank the Titanic. Buzinski added, “There is also evidence that links Belichik to the attack on Pearl Harbor, the now-defunct Arena Football League, and New Coke.”
Cloach Belichik couldn’t be reached for comment..