The schedule. For a dome team playing in the north, the dreaded cold-weather games can really screw up a big opportunity like this. But they lucked out this year. From Nov. 15 to the end of the season they have only one cold-weather game: at Green Bay on Jan. 1 (miserable, I know). They also get a nice, rare three-game home stand in October and play back-to-back away games only once all season (their Denver-Chicago away games are interrupted by their bye week).

Last season. “It’s a whole new season! You can’t look at last year!” Wrong. Last season showed us the potential for this Lions team. Yes, they were only 6-10 last season; But of those 10 losses, six of them were by only 5 points or less — and some of those points were stolen by the officials! But to be a contender for a division title, you have to kill the king…in this case, Green Bay. Last season the 0-3 Lions went into Green Bay…and lost a heartbreaker, 28-26. What was most interesting about that game was that the Lions were down, 28-14, and scored field goals on their next four possessions…this team didn’t give up.

When the Packers came into Detroit on Dec. 12, the Lions’ defense roared to life and held the Packers to a field goal the entire game. Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the second quarter, but the Lions had already picked him off once and held him scoreless. Those two games tell me a lot about the character of this team.

The defensive line. They made a statement in the second quarter of their preseason game against the Patriots. Though the Patriots had already sat two starters on their offensive line, it was still impressive. The guy to watch for this season is DE Cliff Avril. With offensive lines worrying about Suh and Vanden Bosch last season, Avril had 8.5 sacks. Once Nick Fairley is able to round out that front, Avril is going to get more and more one-on-ones and I expect that sack number to be in the double digits.

The quarterback. This is the year Matthew Stafford becomes a Pro Bowler, and it’s entirely possible he’ll be in the final conversation for league MVP. The guy has “it” the way Brees and Brady and Manning and Roethlisberger have “it.” And with the bevy of skill-position weapons he has around him, I expect at least 30 TDs from Stafford this season.

My pick: Lions go 11-5, make the playoffs for the first time for the first time since 1999. Odds of winning the division: 50%.

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Click here to join the “Illegal Use of Hands” college football pick-em. You have to register at ESPN.com to do so; to join, the league password is: outface.

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What a contrast in styles between these two games this weekend. In the desert will be a cordial game between a couple teams that many expected to be watching this game at home. In Pittsburgh, it will be freezing cold, mean and hard-hitting. And in New York City, NBC executives will be praying for an all-Pennsylvania Super Bowl. (Picks in bold)

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals +4
On paper, the Cardinals defense put on a show last week, forcing Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme to turn the ball over six times. In reality, Delhomme did most of the work; And this week, the Cardinals aren’t facing Delhomme. Their heightened play will be enough to keep it close, but I think Philadelphia wins the game. Philadelphia 27, Arizona 24.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The last time I discounted the Ravens for talking a lot of smack was before Super Bowl XXXV. Ravens 34, Giants 7. This Ravens team is mean and nasty, and that is exactly what the winner of this game will need to be. People have been comparing Joe Flacco to Ben Roethlisberg; But Flacco reminds me of Tom Brady. Not Brady in his first year, Brady in his third year. Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 19.

Playoffs: 6-2. Season Record: 47-44-2.

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But, for those of us who are fans of the 28 teams not playing this weekend, we need to find a team to get behind because the other team and their fans are just a bunch of douches.  And since Patriot Nation took an early tee time, we need to analyze the four teams playing in this weekend’s Conference Championships and figure out which of these douches chills you the most!

Team 1:  The Philadelphia Eagles

• The city known for heart-stopping cheesesteaks and Boys II Men.   New Jack Soul was a disgrace to all of music, and Philly is responsible for the majority of it.
• The most obnoxious fans on the planet Earth with zero reason to be.  Before the Phillies lucked their way into a title this season, the city had been championship-less for 25 years. Can you imagine the self-righteousness of Philadelphia fans if the Eagles win it all and they become the late 2000′s version of Boston fans?
• They boo children.  (okay, this might be a plus)
• You don’t know the meaning of hatred til a drunk asshole wearing green and white shouts “E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES!!!!” in your face.  It’s like the Jets chant only much lamer.

Team 2 – The Chicago St. Louis Phoenix Arizona Cardinals

• The team that has not won a title since 1947 (when, coincidentally, they beat the Eagles) and has been the definition of mediocrity for generations.
• Kurt Warner: Burgeoning Artist
• Phoenix has heat during the day that would make your car’s tires explode and that same night has cold that would turn your pool into a skating rink.  I’m convinced this city is filled with schizophrenics.
• Bill Bidwell.  This man must never, ever be rewarded for his ridiculous cheapness.  To give you some idea, until around the turn of the century, Bidwell would require players to buy their own equipment.  Also, he screwed over a city for not building him a new stadium also, which brings us to…

Team 3 – The Baltimore Ravens

• Former owner Art Modell can never step foot again into the city of Cleveland without armed guards.   Generally considered a huge asshole by anyone outside of Maryland (and by Redskins fans within Maryland). No confirmation about this, but it is believed that he also kicks puppies and punches babies for fun.
• These dicks.
• Having an (alleged) murderer in their LB corps and generally having the worst examples of “The U” on their team.
• No one outside of Baltimore can make a crab cake correctly. Their obnoxious guarding of this secret must be stopped.

Team 4 – The Pittsburgh Steelers

• The most successful of the group, having won a championship this century.  They’re the odds-on favorite to win, and really, isn’t it more fun to hate on a favorite?
• Their mayor Luke Ravenstahl had his name (fake) changed this week to Luke Steelerstahl. People who care, zero.
• Troy Polamalu and his long hippie hair.
• 

I know who I’m picking as my winner.

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It certainly looks like I’m hedging my bets, I know. But when it comes to the playoffs, I have a mathematical system that has been very successful in recent years. Last week it picked all four winners and picked three of the spread winners (missed on the Eagles). The one thing the system doesn’t account for is a team that is seriously surging or slumping (though it still picked the Cardinals last week). So take it all with a proverbial grain of salt. (My picks in bold)

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Tennessee Titans
Here’s a stat I haven’t heard anyone talk much about in the last week: Ed Reed has 10 interceptions in his last seven games! When a DB is that hot, watch out. Plus, with Titans center Kevin Mawae out, the pressure up front from the Ravens could bring Vince Young into the game in the second half. Tennessee 20, Baltimore 18

Arizona Cardinals +10 at Carolina Panthers
When these two teams met earlier in the season, Arizona was winning by 14 in the second half before Steve Smith took over the game. Anquan Boldin is banged up for the Cards, but Steve Breaston caught nine passes for 91 yards the last time they tangoed. Carolina 27, Arizona 24

Philadelphia Eagles +4 at New York Giants
This is a game of playmakers. The Eagles have theirs: Brian Westbrook, who has gone for 100 yards or more every time he’s played the Giants in the last five years except for once. The Giants don’t have theirs: Plaxico Burress, who has caught for 100 yards or a TD in all but one game against the Eagles in the last three years. New York 23, Philadelphia 21

San Diego Chargers +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
There is no reason to believe the Chargers will keep it close in this game. No 8-8 team has ever gone to a Conference Championship since the playoffs went to 12 teams; The Steelers’ D is ranked No. 1 and the Chargers are ranked No. 25; LaDainian Tomlinson is likely out; Darren Sproles shot his wad last week; It should be 25 degrees. Yet, I like the Chargers to cover for one big reason: They are gutty. Last year they showed it in the playoffs. This year they have shown it in December and the playoffs. They will get down in the trenches with the Steelers and fight. The Steelers have made pulling victory from the jaws of defeat their trademark this season; And I see them doing it again. Pittsburgh 16, San Diego 15

Playoffs: 3-1. Season Record: 44-43-2

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In these last couple weeks of the season, as some teams start packing it in and others aim for the playoffs, it can get a little tricky to pick games. All in all, half of the home teams this week are underdogs in the eyes of bettors, but some of them are playing their Super Bowl this week . . . (My picks in bold.)

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks +4
The Jets have a playoff spot to play for, and the season’s over for the Seahawks next week. But the Jets have been playing for a lot the last two weeks and laid eggs. This is the Seahawks’ Super Bowl as coach Mike Holmgren goes up against his former quarterback. The Seahawks actually have more to play for than the Jets; Plus, Senecca Wallace has been playing better.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions +7
Speaking of Super Bowls, this is it for the Lions. There is no way they are going to go into Green Bay next week at 0-15 and have the Packers let them win their lone game of the season. The Saints simply haven’t been as good on the road; I see a high-scoring affair with the Lions keeping it close or maybe, just maybe, getting their infamy-dodging win.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
The third “Super Bowl” game of the week sends the Dolphins to a freezing cold Arrowhead Stadium to play a team of guys who need two wins to end the season have a shot of keeping their coach after this season.

Houston Texans -7 at Oakland Raiders
After starting the season 0-4, the Texans have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, which makes them one of the hottest teams in the League. Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton are playing huge; Raiders fans have only the death of Al Davis to look forward to at this point. The Texans, who have never finished above .500 for the season, can do it with two wins to end the season.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -4
Brett Favre got out of Dodge just in time, as the Packers’ running game and defense have fallen off. The Bears, on the other hand, need to win out for a shot at the playoffs, and the Packers’ weaknesses play right into the hands off the Bears.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys -4
Both teams have a ton to play for, but one of them is going to get knocked to the back of the playoff line this week. I like the Cowboys to win because they’re at home, they’ve been playing better (except for 10 minutes in Pittsburgh) with Romo back, and I like their matchups (like Owens against Rolle).

Last week: 2-3. Season: 40-37-2

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Years ago I heard an old rule of betting: If the spread is over 12.5, take the dog. I don’t know if there’s any statistical truth to that, but this week I’m throwing caution to the wind and picking two big favorites to win at home. At the same time, I’m thinking the league’s only one-loss team will lose on the road. (My picks in bold.)

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles -14
First Ken Dorsey faces the Titans on the road, now he’s at Philadelphia and their Pro Bowl cornerbacks and patented blitz schemes. The Eagles and Brian Westbrook are finding their midseason form now, and I expect this to be a big step in the direction of the playoffs for the Eagles.

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans +3
The Texans started the season 0-4, but they are 6-3 since. I hate the idea of “trap games,” and I think it gets overused. But this is a real trap for the Titans, who can win homefield advantage throughout the playoffs NEXT week against the Steelers. Steve Slaton for the Texans has bested 120 yards three of his last four games.

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts -17
We have seen some very unexpected outcomes this season, but none would be more shocking than the Lions losing by less than 17. The way you upset the Colts is by grinding out the clock with your running game and converting third downs. The Lions have the third-worst running offense and the second-worst third-down conversion rate.

Denver Broncos +7.5 at Carolina Panthers
The 7.5 spread is the most deceptive there is, because it isn’t 7 points, and it isn’t even 8 points. Fifteen games this season have been decided by 7 points, 8 have been decided by 9 points, 11 have been decided by 10, and only 2 have been decided by 8. Do I really think the Broncos should be 9- or 10-point underdogs? No.

New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are completely unpredictable, and the Giants are a roller coaster. I asked my partner to pick this one, and his analysis: The Giants will be thrilled to not be playing in cold, crappy weather. Works for me.

Last week: 2-2. This season: 38-34-3.

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Sometimes things just don’t go your way. It seems every season I have one week that I just get utterly, horribly wrong. That was last week, when I went 0-5 in my official picks, and I also lost three of the other four games I was considering. To good news is, it can’t get worse . . . (my picks in bold.)

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans -14
Finally, the best-looking quarterback in Cleveland, Ken Dorsey, gets to play. Unfortunately, it’s against a defense with a chip on its shoulder. Last time Tennessee played a home game, the defense allowed two runners over 80 yards and Brett Favre to complete 78% of his passes. Poor, poor Ken Dorsey.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers -3
I think this game is going to come down to the matchup between the Panthers’ pass defense and the Bucs’ pass offense. Julius Peppers has seen a resurgence this year, and the Panthers’ corners have played pretty well. Note this: When Jeff Garcia’s passer rating is under 90 on the road, they are 0-3; When it’s over 90 on the road, they are 2-0.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers -6
Houston has been good at home (4-2) but atrocious on the road (1-5). The weather forecast for Sunday in Green Bay is high of 18 degrees. While the Texans’ offensive game plan will be to run behind Steve Slaton, Matt Schaub, who hasn’t played in over a month, will have to throw at some point; A little rust in that weather and against those corners could be devastating.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
This is definitely a risky pick, given the unknown status of Marion Barber. But, that’s what they make pain killers for. The Cowboys’ defensive line could have a field day against the Steelers’ O line. This game will come down to, simply, which team plays better and wants it more, and after three months of being down on the Cowboys, I am starting to believe.

Last week: 0-5. Season: 36-32-2

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After getting the Raiders right last week, I’m a little emboldened with picking big underdogs this week, so take my Thanksgiving-day picks with a grain of salt. Here’s hoping for a few great games on the holiday! (My picks in bold.)

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions +11
The Lions are a terrible team. Maybe the worst ever. But we have seen them pull off upsets at home on Thanksgiving. The Titans, for their part, haven’t won any of their last five games by 11 points.

Seattle Seahawks +12.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Terrell Owens exploded last week for over 200 yards; and the Seahawks’ pass defense is even worse than the Niners’. But I don’t think the Cowboys are totally out of the woods yet, and the Seahawks do have a number of their offensive stars back.

San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills -7
Niners coach Mike Singletary is the biggest turkey in the NFL, mooning his own players and throwing people under the bus, and now he tries to be the first West Coast team to win an early game on the East Coast this year. With Trent Edwards playing better, that’s not going to happen.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots PK
Matt Cassell will be sending a good part of the day on his butt, but so will Ben Roethlisberger. In a must-win game for the Pats, and Willie Parker probably on the sideline, I’ll take the Pats at home.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4
Saints corners Randall Gay and Jason David played their asses of Monday night; that won’t happen again.

Last week: 4-2. Season: 36-27-2

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This may be moot by the time you read it, but has anyone else noticed that the NFL Network’s Thursday night games so far this season have been great, and both of them have resulted in upsets? With three Thursday night games next week on Thanksgiving, we can only hope that trend continues.

Cincinnati Bengals +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals have played the Jags and Eagles very well over the last two weeks. The Steelers present similar game plans for the Bengals. The Steelers will blitz a ton, but the Eagles got 8 sacks against the Bengals and couldn’t win by 11. What gives the Bengals a shot to win: no QB has been sacked more than Ben Roethlisberger. (My picks in bold.)

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals +3
It’s the latest “biggest game of the year,” featuring two teams who relish in their “don’t get no respect” mantra. Kurt Warner is getting all the pub, but Anquan Boldin is my Cardinals MVP so far. The Cards are 4-0 at home thanks to big plays at the right time on defense and special teams. Look for more of that against the Gi’nts.

Chicago Bears -8.5 at St. Louis Rams
Four weeks ago, some experts were predicting the Rams would win the NFC West. They’ve lost four games by a combined 91 points since, thanks in large part to bad quarterback play and injuries. I don’t see either of those things changing this week.

New England Patriots +2 at Miami Dolphins
The Pats lost to the Jets, but Matt Cassel gave defensive coordinators a lot more to think about going forward; No more “let’s make Cassel beat us.” The last time the Pats lost twice in one season to a divisional foe was 2000, Belichick’s first season as head coach of the team. The last time Miami beat any team twice in one season: 2003.

Oakland Raiders +9.5 at Denver Broncos
The Broncos are favored by so much for two main reasons. First, the Raiders’ offense isn’t good, but the Broncos have trouble stopping the run and Darren McFadden is expected to be full strength this week. Second, the Broncos’ offense has been great, but the Raiders have allowed 3.5 points fewer than Denver this season.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys -10
There are so many reasons to pick the Cowboys, it’s hard to count them. T.O. will be motivated to put up crazy points, so he’ll probably actually get open this game. The Niners couldn’t score on the Rams in the last 30 minutes of their last game. The Cowboys have found renewed focus thanks to recent losses. This one should get ugly.

Last week: 2-3. Season: 32-25-2

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