The schedule. For a dome team playing in the north, the dreaded cold-weather games can really screw up a big opportunity like this. But they lucked out this year. From Nov. 15 to the end of the season they have only one cold-weather game: at Green Bay on Jan. 1 (miserable, I know). They also get a nice, rare three-game home stand in October and play back-to-back away games only once all season (their Denver-Chicago away games are interrupted by their bye week).

Last season. “It’s a whole new season! You can’t look at last year!” Wrong. Last season showed us the potential for this Lions team. Yes, they were only 6-10 last season; But of those 10 losses, six of them were by only 5 points or less — and some of those points were stolen by the officials! But to be a contender for a division title, you have to kill the king…in this case, Green Bay. Last season the 0-3 Lions went into Green Bay…and lost a heartbreaker, 28-26. What was most interesting about that game was that the Lions were down, 28-14, and scored field goals on their next four possessions…this team didn’t give up.

When the Packers came into Detroit on Dec. 12, the Lions’ defense roared to life and held the Packers to a field goal the entire game. Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game in the second quarter, but the Lions had already picked him off once and held him scoreless. Those two games tell me a lot about the character of this team.

The defensive line. They made a statement in the second quarter of their preseason game against the Patriots. Though the Patriots had already sat two starters on their offensive line, it was still impressive. The guy to watch for this season is DE Cliff Avril. With offensive lines worrying about Suh and Vanden Bosch last season, Avril had 8.5 sacks. Once Nick Fairley is able to round out that front, Avril is going to get more and more one-on-ones and I expect that sack number to be in the double digits.

The quarterback. This is the year Matthew Stafford becomes a Pro Bowler, and it’s entirely possible he’ll be in the final conversation for league MVP. The guy has “it” the way Brees and Brady and Manning and Roethlisberger have “it.” And with the bevy of skill-position weapons he has around him, I expect at least 30 TDs from Stafford this season.

My pick: Lions go 11-5, make the playoffs for the first time for the first time since 1999. Odds of winning the division: 50%.

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10) The Vikings won’t make the playoffs.
I have no question that Favre will play all 16 games. That’s why they won’t make the playoffs. He’s gimpy already, and he won’t pull himself out of a game. With a mediocre offensive line, I see 20+ picks for Favre again this season; And a team with that secondary can’t survive that.

9) Kevin Kolb will be a top-5 quarterback this season.
People outside of Philadelphia were scratching their heads when the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb. But Eagles fans rejoiced. For all the criticism of Andy Reid, he has a fantastic passing system and the guys to run it: A four-star receiver and deep threat in DeSean Jackson, a strong receiving tight end in Brent Celek, and one of the league’s best pass-catching RBs in LeSean McCoy.

Wade Phillips and Lovie Smith will finally be shown the door.
An owner has only so much patience. And despite Jerry Jones saying he’s been told to not talk about the Super Bowl, that doesn’t mean he isn’t thinking about it again. Chicago management feel they’ve delivered everything Lovie Smith needs to win, but he won’t be able to escape the team’s fourth straight January watching the playoffs from home.

7) The Raiders’ predicted rise from the basement is premature.
Why is everyone talking about how Jason Campbell is the savior of this team? “He’s better than JaMarcus Russell,” is what I hear over and over again. But folks, he was not good in Washington throwing to Santana Moss and Chris Cooley; Why is he suddenly going to be a break-out star throwing to Louis Murphy and Zach Miller? And with that offensive line, my guess is he’s not even in the top 20 of all QBs at the end of the season (I could see him being benched). The defense could be quite good, and that will keep them from the three-touchdown losses that plagued them last year, but the Raiders aren’t going anywhere this season.

6) Cincinnati’s predicted fall from grace is premature.
It seems everyone considers the Bengals’ run at the playoffs last year a fluke. Not me. I see it as a long time coming. This is a good team that hit hard times over the last couple years, and last year it all came together. While I usually hate the disruption T.O. brings to a team, I’m banking on him being a model citizen who just wants to win the Super Bowl. And if that passing offense can just be ranked in the top half of the league, they will win the AFC North again.

5) Aaron Rodgers will be the NFL MVP.
This season will mark the completion of Rodgers’ emergence from Brett Favre’s shadow. Not only will his Packers win the NFC North, but Rodgers will put up crazy numbers that hand him his first league MVP trophy. He had a stellar season last year despite a horrible offensive line. But midway through the 2009 season, the team switched its blocking scheme and Rodgers soared. Look for 4,700 yards and 40 TDs (passing and running) from Rodgers this year.

4) San Francisco 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Mike Singletary and the Niners front office are building a champion in the Bay Area. I don’t think any team had a better draft, with San Francisco taking two stud offensive lineman (one of their biggest weaknesses last year) in the first round. I think that will allow their offense to explode this year, with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree leading the charge. And with a top-5 defense, the 49ers will be playing deep into January; Whether they play in February or not may depend on whether they have to visit Green Bay in the snow.

3) The New York Jets will miss the playoffs.
As a Patriots fan, I’m thrilled that another team is now the most-hated team in the league. The Jets have taken their bragadocio to national television, proclaiming themselves the best team in the NFL. But it seems everyone has forgotten that this was a 7-7 team last year before their final two opponents (Colts and Bengals) decided to sit their starters in their final two games. Mark Sanchez was terrible last year (passer rating of 63.0), and that was with a 1,400-yard rusher in Thomas Jones (who is now gone).

2) The Lions will be a .500 or better team.
No team will take a bigger leap on defense this year than the Lions. Last year they couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback and gave up over 30 points and 265 passing yards per game. In the offseason they revamped their defensive line, drafting Ndamukong Suh and bringing in Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch. And while we hear about the “sophomore slump” for quarterbacks all the time, I think Matthew Stafford and the offense will be better. The Lions are rebuilding, and they will see some of the fruits of that rebuilding this year.

1) The Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West.
The fall of the Chargers is at hand. They let their best running back go, their best wide receiver won’t play for them, and one of their key offensive lineman is holding out. This team doesn’t start strong to any season, and this time they won’t be able to recover. On the flip side, we will witness this year the rise of the Chiefs. I love what they did this offseason. They now have a two-headed monster at running back in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. They have two fantastic coordinators in Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crenell (guys who weren’t great head coaches but who know their side of the ball as well as anyone). And while everyone is talking about whether Dwayne Bowe will finally break out this year, I look for Chris Chambers to have a resurrection. Add to that a favorable schedule and you have a 10-6 division champion.

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• Big, bad, mean Rex Ryan has brought his no-holds-barred attitude to the New York Jets, and it’s turned into some skirmishes and fights at camp. Ryan is loving it.
• The Raiders have taken a different approach to camp. Instead of focusing on the completions and catches and hard hits, they’re doing lots of walk-throughs and learning. It’s not what you expect from the Raiders, but it’s not a bad idea for this team.
• Lions receiver Bryant Johnson is nursing an injury…from a golf cart accident. Until last year, the Lions weren’t terrible. But when your receivers are being injured by golf carts, it’s just a bad omen.

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Roger Federer (right) nearly blew his chance at his first French Open title a day after Nadal lost, but he rallied from a 2-set deficit to advance to the quarterfinals.

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After 18 years in the NBA, 42-year-old Dikembe Mutombo says his career is over.

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I much prefer the old logo, at least when it’s a tattoo on the chest of a hot fan.

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Stafford is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the draft by the Detroit Lions. I just think it’s pretty cool that Stafford obviously has no problem showing affection with another guy. Spooning is the next bro hug, after all.

Another cuddly pic after the jump.

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Former USF player Will Bleakley

There’s an incredible story developing now involving two NFL players (Corey Smith and Marquis Cooper of the Lions and Raiders) and two former college football players who were reported missing in the Gulf of Mexico yesterday. Sports Illustrated is reporting that the Coast Guard has found the overturned boat and one of the men was clinging to it. Check back here or CNNSI.com for the upcoming details.

Update: One of the former South Florida players, Nick Schuyler, has been rescued after clinging to the overturned boat.

Note: What I don’t get about this story is why these guys went out in the first place. There were 15-foot peaks, a small-craft advisory, and they were headed 50 miled offshore in a 21-foot boat. I’m anxious to hear from Schuyler (said SKY-ler) why they decided to take the trip despite the advisory.

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Hat tip to Pro Football Talk.

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Tampa Bay then woke up and weaved a hellacious fury that would make King Leonidas say “Damn.” The Buccaneers hung up 35 unanswered points before Detroit was finally able to get another score. And later just to prove their point, the Bucs scored again. The end result was a final score of 38-20. With Detroit taking their record to 0-11, and the Bucs maintaining their first place tie in the NFC South at 8-3.
Things have gotten desperately bad in Detroit. There are 5 games left towards the ignominious honor of being the first 0-16 team in league history (Tampa only lost 14 in 1976).  Unfortunately for Detroit, all five are playoff contenders. They have 10-1 Tennessee on Thanksgiving, whom the Lions haven’t beaten since they were the Houston Oilers, Minnesota the week after, then at Indy, home for New Orleans, and they finish at Green Bay.  The Silver & Blue will be heavy underdogs in all 5 games, with the Saints & Vikings being the only two that may be under double-digit spreads.

So, yeah, it looks real bad, and nothing is on the horizon to make a significant change this season.  Maybe they should get these guys to play for them, they’re showing more life than anyone on the field. Well as they say, on any given Sunday — or Thursday.

Fire Millen — oh wait, they aready did.

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