But the reason the Patriots aren’t running away with the AFC East isn’t the defense or Bill Belichick…it’s Tom Brady.

Yes, he of a unanimous MVP award. He of three Super Bowl rings. He of the hot-model wife and hot-actress baby-mama. The guy with the once-flowing locks is why the New York Jets “should” bury the Patriots this Sunday, just five weeks after losing to them in Foxboro.

Crazy, right? Not if you’ve been watching the games.

In the loss to the Giants last week, the Patriots defense pitched a shutout in the first half. Does Brady take advantage of the goose-egg for the Giants? His first-half possessions: punt, punt, interception, punt, punt, missed field goal. Brady had the ball for six full possessions and managed…zero points.

No problem, right? We’ve gotten used to the Patriots’ offense coming out of the locker room to start the second half with great success. Instead, against the Giants Brady decided to force a throw into a blanketed Rob Gronkowski…intercepted. The defense held the Giants to only a field goal.

Next possession, Brady is pressured…and fumbles the ball at the Patriots’ 10-yard line. The defense can’t hold this time and the Giants score a touchdown.

Next possession, Brady leads a three-and-out…but gets bailed out by Patriots defensive player Rob Ninkovich when he recovers a muffed punt.

For all the talk about how horrible the Patriots’ defense is, they’ve allowed over 25 points only once this season. Against the Giants, the defense was on the field for 13 drives. They allowed the Giants to score only four times, and one of those scoring drives started on their own 10-yard line (thanks, again, to Brady).

Admittedly, against the Steelers the defense was on the field for far too long. But for how bad they looked, Brady was worse. Brady had the ball eight times in that game; He scored only three times, and one of the two touchdowns came because the Patriots defense started him on the Steelers 8-yard line.

What’s happened to Tom Terrific? That’s the $14 million question. It certainly seems like something in practice isn’t translating to the field. Maybe he switched to decaf this season. Could be that there was a problem installing the pool in his $20M Los Angeles mansion. Maybe the Dunkies around the corner closed? I don’t know.

But one thing’s for sure: Tommy doesn’t like to play against man defense. When facing a zone a quarterback can sit back and throw to the open space; that’s what Brady likes, sit back and wait for his offensive coordinator to get a receiver wide open for him. Against man defense, he has to zip the ball to the perfect spot. Brady can’t – or won’t – zip that ball this season.

Man defenses houldn’t be a problem for the Patriots, with the speed of Wes Welker and Danny Woodhead and Gronkowski and Chad Ochocinco. These guys can get open against a man defense. And they did against the Giants.

Ochocinco ran a beautiful post that got two steps on his defender…but Tommy threw it well behind right to the defender (who dropped the ball). On another play Welker got free…and Brady threw an inexplicably bad pass. It happened throughout the game.

Something clearly changed when Brady injured his knee in 2008. He hasn’t been the same since, and in no area is that more noticeable than his deep balls. The deep passes were so bad last year, and Brady was so addicted to them, that the organization had to get rid of Randy Moss to convince Brady to stop throwing deep. Experts claim the Patriots don’t have a deep threat – but when Ochocinco broke into the end zone with a two-step lead on a beautiful post pattern against the Giants, it wasn’t No. 85 who threw the ball well behind him into the defender’s hands.

We’ve seen this poor play coming for years. The Patriots’ last three playoff games dating back to 2007 – two of them at home – have all been losses. Did you see those passes Brady threw to the fan in the front row trying to hit Welker on an out-pattern in the Super Bowl? Or that interception to David Harris in the playoff loss to the New York Jets last season?

Six years ago, with worse receivers, Brady didn’t make those mistakes. He’s making them now.

To be sure, the Patriots’ defense isn’t great. But it should be serviceable for a team with supposedly one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. That defense has allowed 184 points this season; The Packers’ defense has allowed 179 points. The difference that has the Packers undefeated and the Patriots staring at a three-game losing streak isn’t just five points…It’s the quarterback.

The Packers’ record when the defense allows more than 25 points: 3-0.

“Brady can’t carry the team! You can’t expect him to be perfect!”

No, you can’t. You can’t expect anyone to be perfect. But when one player makes 11% of the team’s salary cap and touches the ball virtually every offensive play, you can expect that player to be Terrific. Yet with every game this season, memories of “Tom Terrific” fade more into the distant past…

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“Look at this, that’s embarrassing,” Rodgers said while speaking on his weekly radio show on ESPN Milwaukee. “Page 94 of this GQ thing here, that’s terrible.”

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The suit also includes a message Favre allegedly sent to a third, unidentified massage therapist. “Kinda lonely tonight,” it says. “I guess I have bad intentions.”

The lawsuit comes just days after the NFL slapped Favre on the wrist regarding his alleged sexual harassment of Jets game hostess Jen Sterger. If this is all true, why is the press not dragging Favre through the mud the way they did with Tiger Woods? You gotta wonder what’s going on there.

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“Obviously I knew this question is coming,” Ryan said this afternoon during his usually scheduled briefing with New York reporters. “This is a personal matter and I’m not going to discuss it. This is a personal matter, I hope you can respect the fact I don’t want to discuss it.”

Ryan and his wife, Michelle, were reportedly featured in multiple foot fetish videos, which appear on Deadspin.

“My wife is beautiful,” Ryan said. “We’ve been married for 23 years, and she’s awesome.”

The two have been married for 23 years. Personally, I think if you can keep your sex life spicy after 23 years, do whatever the heck you need to do. Foot-fetish video? Sure, why not! But I have to wonder how it leaked to the public if Ryan wanted to keep it a “personal matter.”

Then there’s the matter of the personals account on alt.com that Deadspin has unearthed for “ihaveprettyfeet.” The profile features a couple, including the woman who claims the same birth date as Rex Ryan (to the specific day, month and year). “She” is listed as bi-curious.

Frankly, I think this is all kind of cool. If true, the Ryans will get embarrassed and hang their heads. They shouldn’t! Again, 23 years is a long time to be with one person. They’re obviously still in love and attracted to each other. None of this tells me that their marriage is weak or they are of weak character; On the contrary, if they’re able to talk about these issues honestly and make videos and post couples profiles, more power to them!

I hope they don’t get too much grief over this. But with Ryan at the center of the New York media, I feel for him and his wife.

You can see the videos at Deadspin.

Hat tip to Kelvin C.

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The video and story are here. (Go to 2:08 in the video to see the goods.)

Brett has wisely declined to comment. The New York Jets are investigating and so is the NFL. How many games suspension is sexting your cock? A game per inch?

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Find out what he “Loves To” do:

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10) The Vikings won’t make the playoffs.
I have no question that Favre will play all 16 games. That’s why they won’t make the playoffs. He’s gimpy already, and he won’t pull himself out of a game. With a mediocre offensive line, I see 20+ picks for Favre again this season; And a team with that secondary can’t survive that.

9) Kevin Kolb will be a top-5 quarterback this season.
People outside of Philadelphia were scratching their heads when the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb. But Eagles fans rejoiced. For all the criticism of Andy Reid, he has a fantastic passing system and the guys to run it: A four-star receiver and deep threat in DeSean Jackson, a strong receiving tight end in Brent Celek, and one of the league’s best pass-catching RBs in LeSean McCoy.

Wade Phillips and Lovie Smith will finally be shown the door.
An owner has only so much patience. And despite Jerry Jones saying he’s been told to not talk about the Super Bowl, that doesn’t mean he isn’t thinking about it again. Chicago management feel they’ve delivered everything Lovie Smith needs to win, but he won’t be able to escape the team’s fourth straight January watching the playoffs from home.

7) The Raiders’ predicted rise from the basement is premature.
Why is everyone talking about how Jason Campbell is the savior of this team? “He’s better than JaMarcus Russell,” is what I hear over and over again. But folks, he was not good in Washington throwing to Santana Moss and Chris Cooley; Why is he suddenly going to be a break-out star throwing to Louis Murphy and Zach Miller? And with that offensive line, my guess is he’s not even in the top 20 of all QBs at the end of the season (I could see him being benched). The defense could be quite good, and that will keep them from the three-touchdown losses that plagued them last year, but the Raiders aren’t going anywhere this season.

6) Cincinnati’s predicted fall from grace is premature.
It seems everyone considers the Bengals’ run at the playoffs last year a fluke. Not me. I see it as a long time coming. This is a good team that hit hard times over the last couple years, and last year it all came together. While I usually hate the disruption T.O. brings to a team, I’m banking on him being a model citizen who just wants to win the Super Bowl. And if that passing offense can just be ranked in the top half of the league, they will win the AFC North again.

5) Aaron Rodgers will be the NFL MVP.
This season will mark the completion of Rodgers’ emergence from Brett Favre’s shadow. Not only will his Packers win the NFC North, but Rodgers will put up crazy numbers that hand him his first league MVP trophy. He had a stellar season last year despite a horrible offensive line. But midway through the 2009 season, the team switched its blocking scheme and Rodgers soared. Look for 4,700 yards and 40 TDs (passing and running) from Rodgers this year.

4) San Francisco 49ers will be in the NFC Championship game.
Mike Singletary and the Niners front office are building a champion in the Bay Area. I don’t think any team had a better draft, with San Francisco taking two stud offensive lineman (one of their biggest weaknesses last year) in the first round. I think that will allow their offense to explode this year, with Frank Gore, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree leading the charge. And with a top-5 defense, the 49ers will be playing deep into January; Whether they play in February or not may depend on whether they have to visit Green Bay in the snow.

3) The New York Jets will miss the playoffs.
As a Patriots fan, I’m thrilled that another team is now the most-hated team in the league. The Jets have taken their bragadocio to national television, proclaiming themselves the best team in the NFL. But it seems everyone has forgotten that this was a 7-7 team last year before their final two opponents (Colts and Bengals) decided to sit their starters in their final two games. Mark Sanchez was terrible last year (passer rating of 63.0), and that was with a 1,400-yard rusher in Thomas Jones (who is now gone).

2) The Lions will be a .500 or better team.
No team will take a bigger leap on defense this year than the Lions. Last year they couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback and gave up over 30 points and 265 passing yards per game. In the offseason they revamped their defensive line, drafting Ndamukong Suh and bringing in Corey Williams and Kyle Vanden Bosch. And while we hear about the “sophomore slump” for quarterbacks all the time, I think Matthew Stafford and the offense will be better. The Lions are rebuilding, and they will see some of the fruits of that rebuilding this year.

1) The Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West.
The fall of the Chargers is at hand. They let their best running back go, their best wide receiver won’t play for them, and one of their key offensive lineman is holding out. This team doesn’t start strong to any season, and this time they won’t be able to recover. On the flip side, we will witness this year the rise of the Chiefs. I love what they did this offseason. They now have a two-headed monster at running back in Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. They have two fantastic coordinators in Charlie Weiss and Romeo Crenell (guys who weren’t great head coaches but who know their side of the ball as well as anyone). And while everyone is talking about whether Dwayne Bowe will finally break out this year, I look for Chris Chambers to have a resurrection. Add to that a favorable schedule and you have a 10-6 division champion.

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Dungy also said he wouldn’t hire someone “like that” because it’s tough for him to be around. I guess that makes it crystal clear about whether he’d have an openly gay player on his team. I wonder if he’d ask Goodell to tell gay players to stay in the closet, since Dungy doesn’t like that either. Thank Tony Dungy’s God he’s out of the NFL.

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• Big, bad, mean Rex Ryan has brought his no-holds-barred attitude to the New York Jets, and it’s turned into some skirmishes and fights at camp. Ryan is loving it.
• The Raiders have taken a different approach to camp. Instead of focusing on the completions and catches and hard hits, they’re doing lots of walk-throughs and learning. It’s not what you expect from the Raiders, but it’s not a bad idea for this team.
• Lions receiver Bryant Johnson is nursing an injury…from a golf cart accident. Until last year, the Lions weren’t terrible. But when your receivers are being injured by golf carts, it’s just a bad omen.

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Denver Nuggets get win in L.A., still wrestling with the Iron Sheik.

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