We're
nearing the final stretch of the NFL season, and I've
started to really look back at my preseason predictions to
see where I went right and where I went wrong.
I'M AS DUMB
AS HERM EDWARDS
Boy, did I
royally screw up my prediction of Indianapolis' 2005 season. How did I not credit the addition of
Corey Simon to their defense? Why did I not think their
offense would be as proficient as last season? They were 0-5
in the preseason? Big whoop-di-freakin-do. Not only did I
not have them winning the AFC South (Jacksonville's
schedule looked too tempting; and, if they had held on to
win in Indy earlier this season, they'd actually only be one
game behind the Colts), but I didn't even have the Colts in
the playoffs! As Jim Allen would say, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Instead, I
put my prognostication hopes in the St. Louis Rams. I
think this one is less my ability to pick talent than my
ability to realize that Mike Martz has forced a
stupid pill down the throats of just about everyone on his
coaching staff. And the effects haven't worn off since he
left the team weeks ago. The Rams have also had a terrible
run of injuries. Both of their top receivers – Tory Holt
and Isaac Bruce – have missed time. And on
Sunday, up 17-16, QB Marc Bulger got knocked out of
the game as they were driving for the kill. But hey,
injuries are no excuses – I should have seen it coming.
The entire
AFC West has been a debacle for me. The team I predicted to
finish #3, Denver, is leading the division by two
games; the team I predicted to finish last, San Diego,
looks like the best team in the division. I will give myself
props about one thing here; I said: "I'm predicting a career
year for Jake Plummer." In the same sentence, though,
I added: "but, importing the Browns' offensive line
just doesn't make any sense." That's why Mike Shanahan
gets the big bucks and I don't.
I'M AS
SMART AS BILL BELICHICK
My favorite
post on the
Outsports Discussion Board before the season was this
from Phillyrunner, who is, shocker, an Eagles fan:
"The Eagles behind New York
and Dallas? Earth to Cyd Earth to Cyd the oxygen is getting thin up
there." Again, Bwahahahahaha. Chemistry is key, people; and
the Eagles didn't have it this year. What most people failed
to realize are three things: 1) Eli Manning improved
a lot over the course of last season; 2) the impact that
Plaxico Burress would have on the Giants and; 3) Not
only is Terrell Owens crazy, he's also the best
player on that team. And putting your season in the hands of
crazy man off his meds (as I noted above with the Rams)
isn't a good thing. Yes, I picked the Giants to win the
division and be the #1 seed in the NFC (we'll see if either
comes true, but I look good right now).
It may seem
like a long time ago, but in August the New England
Patriots were a very popular pick to win the Super Bowl.
As I said, "I remember a couple years ago, after the
Ravens won the Super Bowl. The lost Jamal Lewis
in the preseason, and I just thought they were too good to
be affected. I was wrong. This Patriots team has lost about
four Jamal Lewises; it's just too much." I put them second
in their division; but, if it wasn't for a choke by Buffalo
in Foxboro last month, those two teams would be exactly
where I predicted them. "If only . . ."
In
predicting Cincinnati to win their division and be
the #2 seed in the AFC, I was banking on Carson Palmer
to finally be that #1 draft pick that he was and for
Marvin Lewis to finally be that playoff-caliber coach he
was supposed to be. They both have been. I thought their
defense would be a little better, but it hasn't needed to be
(though, it certainly would have helped to stop from scoring
a touchdown once in their first five possessions).
I also
banked on coaching in putting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
in the playoffs. I couldn't understand for the life of me
why the Miami Dolphins picked Ronnie Brown
ahead of Cadillac Williams. They were both Auburn
running backs last year; and, from what I saw on the field
last season, Williams was the real deal and Brown was second
fiddle. When he fell to the Bucs at #5 in the draft, to me
it was reminiscent of how the San Diego Chargers stole
LaDainian Tomlinson with the #5 pick that year. The Bucs'
slide of the last two years is officially over.
Predicted
Rankings as of Jan 2:
1) Indianapolis – It doesn't really matter at this point where I rank
anyone else, because the Colts are the favorites by a mile.
ON TO FLAG
FOOTBALL
My
flag football team’s last regular season game started
like our other primetime game started: down 6-0 in a flash.
It was only the second time this whole season that my team
was trailing, and this one came after an interception on a
deep pass to me. It was the second and last time we would
trail this regular season.
In
finishing the league’s first undefeated regular season, my
team was masterful Saturday night. Our first drive was the
only one we didn’t score on; our opponents’ first drive was
the only one they did score on, as we rolled to a 35-6 win
over the #2 team in the league. As one of the captains of
our primetime opponent said after the game, we adjusted
beautifully. People have asked me why, do I think, is our
team the best in the league. It's that adjusting that we do
every game right away, and knowing how to adjust. You
can see a team throwing short, throwing deep, throwing to
the inside, throwing to one person, running the ball; but,
knowing what to do and how to adjust is the key. I just
think we do that really well.
We also
have a team of players who listen. We certainly have some
good talent; but, there's just as much talent on some of the
other teams. Our team listens carefully to every game plan,
each player processes that information really well, and it
shows up on the field.
We finished
the season 8-0, having outscored our opponents 280-80.
That’s a lot of eights and zeroes.
Of course,
all of this means nothing. It simply means that, just like
the last-place team in the league, it's one loss and we're
done. The playoffs start in two weeks in what will be a
single-elimination format. We are the #1 seed; but, every
team has an equal chance to win it all. Whether we are the
team that does that or not will depend on our ability to
raise our game another level and win three straight games.
Oh, and if
anyone is in New York City
this weekend, we'll be playing a pickup game at Pier 40 on
Saturday from 7pm to 9pm. Come on out – it'll be a blast.
--After 11
weeks we finally have a theme for the NFL season: Can
anyone stop the Colts? Indianapolis became the first
team since 1998 to start the season 10-0 with a convincing
45-37 win at Cincinnati.
"Looking at
the [Colts] offense from the sideline, it's not fair the way
they play,'' said Bengals receiver Chad Johnson, who was
terrific with 189 yards receiving. Cincinnati quarterback
Carson Palmer agreed: "He's unbelievable," Bengals
quarterback Palmer said about Colts QB Peyton Manning (365
yards passing and three touchdowns). "They're
unbelievable."
How
unbelievable? The Colts lead the league in scoring (305
points) and point differential (+153), and have scored 45,
38, 40, 31 and 45 points the last five weeks. On Sunday,
they scored five touchdowns on their first five possessions.
They have not trailed in the fourth quarter since the
nine-minute mark of Week 2 against Jacksonville.
It’s hard
to believe, but after four games some people were wondering
what was wrong with the Colts offense. This is a different
Colts team, one that can win a 10-3 slugfest or a 45-37
shootout. Five of the last six teams to start 10-0 have made
the Super Bowl and Indy has that special look about them.
--Amazingly, the
Bengals' game plan on defense was to stop the run and
make Manning beat them throwing. It was kind of like the
French daring the Germans to invade in 1940, with the same
level of success.
Can the
Colts go 16-0 and complete the first perfect regular
season since the 1972 Miami Dolphins? It will be tough given
the law of averages, but the Colts play four of their next
six at home. Their two road games will be at Jacksonville
(the Jaguars always give them fits) and Seattle (unbeaten at
home this season). Watching the Colts go into New England
and Cincinnati and dominate in the last three weeks shows
this team is built to win anywhere.
--Chad
Johnson did what I thought was a rather lame
post-touchdown celebration when he got on his knees on the
sidelines and mock-proposed to a cheerleader (no, it wasn’t
a male cheerleader, unfortunately). Johnson was proud of his
latest, though.
"I reached
deep into my bag of tricks -- a proposal, something that
everybody does and then their life is over,” Johnson said.
“If somebody tops that, I'm going to stop celebrating."
Actually, it wouldn’t be hard to top that. Johnson’s
“Riverdance” was better, as was the now-outlawed Rams'
“Bob-and-Weave.”
Johnson
also whipped out a Sharpie and scrawled this message for the
CBS cameras: “T.O. I got you baby.” I still don’t know what
it means.
--I love the San Diego
Chargers "throwback" uniforms (see
here). They are the best-looking uniforms in the
history of pro football.
--You
know a team has gone bad when their fans can’t get all
that worked up after a loss. This is the case with the
Philadelphia Eagles, who lost 27-17 to the New York Giants.
At 4-6, the Eagles have lost four straight and their season
is over. Donovan McNabb should have his hernia surgery and
get 100% healthy for 2006 and let Mike McMahon stumble
around at QB the last six games.
As for the
fans, the
Outsports Discussion Board is usually a beehive of
celebration or anguish depending on how the Eagles did. But
Sunday’s loss left them quiet, save for Joe in Philly’s:
“Well, I've seen enough of Mike McMahon.” This is not a
knock on their fans (the folks in Philly are a proud and
sensitive bunch who take offense at the merest perceived
slight), just a sign that losing with Mike McMahon just
isn’t as unexpected as losing with your first-teamers.
--The
New England Patriots have struggled all season due to
injuries and have one of the league’s worst defenses. They
would struggle to make the playoffs in any other division,
but in the crappy AFC East they are royalty and, ironically
(given how they've played) more assured of a playoff berth
than just about anyone.
At 6-4, the
Pats are two games ahead of Buffalo, which lost 48-10 to San
Diego. On Sunday, the three teams trailing the Patriots in
the East scored 10 (Buffalo), 0 (New York) and 0 (Miami). I
still think we’re going to see a New England at Indianapolis
playoff game in mid-January.
--Biggest
surprise Sunday might have been Chicago’s rather easy
13-3 win over Carolina. The Panthers had become the trendy
NFC pick, having come into the game with six straight wins.
But the solid Chicago defense sacked Jake Delhomme eight
times in getting the Bears to a 7-3 record.
Chicago
still thinks the forward pass is a foreign concept: Peyton
Manning’s 365 yards on Sunday is more than the Bears’ Kyle
Orton has in the last three games! (340). But the
Bears look playoff bound (though like the Pats mainly
because they’re in a lousy division).
--I
still don’t know how the Washington Redskins lost to the
Oakland Raiders, 16-13. Actually, I do know: The Redskins’
offense in wildy inconsistent. The Raiders defense had given
up an average of 26 points a game on the road, but throw out
a ‘Skins touchdown on an interception return and Washington
scored six offensive points Sunday. This is the same
Redskins that put up 35 a week earlier against a good Tampa
Bay defense.
--I like
this note from Sports Illustrated’s Don Banks on the
lame quarterbacking that has infected much of the NFL: “At
one point on Sunday I was watching games in which the
following were quarterbacking: Charlie Frye, Mike McMahon,
Kyle Orton, Sage Rosenfels, Tommy Maddox, Matt Schaub and
Kyle Boller.” Which made Peyton Manning vs. Carson Palmer
all that much more fun to appreciate.
--Funny
call from the hot ref Ed “Guns” Hochuli, doing the
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys game. Lions tight end Marcus
Pollard got pissed and threw the ball towards the line
judge, who had the ball slip through his hands. Pollard was
called for a personal foul (“throwing a ball at an
official”) but was not ejected Hochuli said, because the
ball failed to hit the official.
--The
NFC is a muddle with no team looking like championship
material. I know Seattle is 8-2, but they had a lucky win
against Dallas and barely won at San Francisco on Sunday.
All the other top teams look OK one week and leave you
scratching your head the next (see Carolina, Atlanta, Dallas
and the Giants). In contrast, the AFC has teams like San
Diego that might not even make the playoffs. If they were in
the NFC West, the Chargers would be a first-place team.
--Biggest
stumble Sunday came from Pittsburgh, which fell to
Baltimore in overtime. The Steelers (7-3) are now 1-2
without starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and blew a
chance to take the lead in their division.
My Top 5
1.
Indianapolis (10-0): Next up, a big Monday-nighter
against Pittsburgh.
2.
Denver (8-2): The Broncos (only 2-2 on the road) get
tested with upcoming games at Dallas, Kansas City and San
Diego. Even a December trip to Buffalo (4-1 at home) will be
a test.
3. San
Diego (6-4): The Chargers will regret blowing that game
at Philadelphia on a blocked field goal.
4.
Pittsburgh (7-3): Big Ben can’t come back soon enough.
5.
Cincinnati (7-3): Carson Palmer is the real thing at
quarterback, but the Bengals need a better defensive front.
