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To buy the Patriots hype?

I have written precious little this season about the New England Patriots. Despite picking them to go to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs, I really wrote them off last April. A few weeks ago, when people like Peter King started saying, “look out, they’re getting healthy,” I dismissed it. I can’t dismiss it anymore.

I’ve gotten to watch their last two games in their entirety. At home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and at the New York Jets, the Patriots looked nothing like the team I saw get dismantled by the Colts. They looked better than the team I saw beat the Raiders. The difference hasn’t been the offense, though Corey Dillon coming back has meant more confidence and more stability. While the scoreboard says differently, the defense has shut out three straight teams and hasn’t allowed a meaningful touchdown since 10 minutes were left in the third quarter of their November 27 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. Hell, the offense has allowed more points when it counted than the defense has.

Still, a one fact haunts me about this team. To win the Super Bowl again (something I wouldn’t have even discussed six months ago), they’ll have to win four playoff games. They haven’t won four games against playoff-contention teams (they’re 2-4) the whole season, let alone over the course of five weeks.

What is up with Kyle Boller? (and does it hold hope for the Texans?)

Three weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Denver Broncos, 12-10. The defense had held the Denver Broncos to their lowest total at home since Week 12 of 2003. The Ravens offense outgained the Broncos but failed to outscore them. Quarterback Kyle Boller, now in his third season with the Ravens, was catching heat for his whopping 63.01 passer rating.

A funny thing happened, though, as everyone started writing him off. He exploded in two straight home games, winning both of them in prime time and putting up a two-game QB rating of 123.8, throwing three touchdowns each game. For only the second and third times all season (he did miss seven games), he threw more TDs than INTs.

What a difference two weeks make. Now, instead of asking which quarterback Baltimore will go after in the offseason, people are saying that maybe, just maybe, coach Brian Billick has the guy he’s needed all along.

I read somewhere that his is planting his foot now. But, I find it hard to believe that a guy who’s been quarterbacking for a dozen years has suddenly realized he needs to plant his foot. John Clayton said it was because Boller stopped hesitating and started taking risks. But, it’s a lot easier to take risks when you’re out of the playoff hunt and all failed risks can do is position you better in the draft.

It’s just a hunch, but I actually think it has something to do with increased pressure. Boller has now been fighting for his starting job for the last couple of weeks. Also in watching him perform the last two games, I have seen him throw incredibly well with defensive players circling or grabbing him. He’s thrown a couple passes that were simply atrocious decisions, but the guy has looked great.

When I look at the way he entered the league, compared to some of the top young passers in the league, I start to understand why his development, if he has finally come around, has taken longer. Tom Brady, Carson Palmer and Drew Brees all got to sit on the sideline for a year before getting their first start. Eli Manning sat for half a season before taking the reigns. Peyton Manning was thrown to the wolves in his first game, and he’s worked out fine; but, it wasn’t until his sixth season that he threw under 15 interceptions in a season (Brady, Palmer and Brees all did it by their third year starting; I’d bet money Eli does it next year).  

My Top Five as of Jan. 2

1) Seattle. They've got the longest winning streak and get all their playoff games at home.

2) Indianapolis. I didn't like the loss to the Chargers, though you can't take anything from the last two games of the season.

3) New England. The team "no one wants to play" - usually means they'll be one-and-done.

4) Chicago. Their defense is playing out of its mind, and I actually think the addition of Rex Grossman will continue to pay dividends.

5) Cincinnati. I'm hoping they just didn't prepare for the Bills. But, as Jim said, they are still the Bengals.

--Johnson even had his TD celebration foiled. After scoring on a long pass from Palmer in the second quarter, Johnson ran to the sidelines to look for whatever prop he had planned. But it wasn't where he wanted it to be and he looked frustrated. He ran back onto the field but was sent off by a referee, who basically told him that his celebration window had closed. Johnson then found a bag of gifts on the sideline that he distributed to fans, but the moment had passed.

--Cincinnati’s loss was interesting in another way. For the last week, the media have been predicting that the Indianapolis Colts would play the New England Patriots in a second-round playoff game. This was based on the Colts being the top seed (a given) and the Patriots finishing fourth and winning its wild card game.

However, there’s now a good chance the Patriots could get the third seed and the Bengals the fourth. This would happen if the Patriots beat the Dolphins and the Bengals lose at Kansas City. If this occurs, the Colts and Patriots could only meet in the conference title game; it was always kind of silly to forecast a playoff game a month out.

--Jacksonville clinched its first playoff spot since 1999 by beating Houston and is guaranteed the AFC’s fifth seed, where they will play at either New England or Cincinnati in the wild card round. Pittsburgh will get the final AFC slot if it beats Detroit next week or Kansas City loses to Cincinnati. Denver wrapped up the second seed and a first-round bye by blasting the Raiders.

--The AFC has two “Teams Nobody Wants to Play,” in New England and Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won three in a row, allowing a total of 12 points in those games. The Patriots have won five of six and allowed less than 100 yards rushing total in its last three games.

Meanwhile, let’s stop all that nonsense about the San Diego Chargers being the “Best Team to Miss the Playoffs.” While it’s true that if San Diego was in the NFC, they’d probably be the conference favorite, the Chargers have no one to blame but themselves given all the close games they’ve blown this year. They don’t deserve the playoffs.

--In the NFC, Seattle, Chicago and New York are in, with the Seahawks having home field and the Bears the second seed and bye. Washington, Carolina and Tampa Bay each make the playoffs if they win their final game. Seattle and Chicago will be tough places for a visitor to go in and win, and who would have predicted a Bears-Seahawks NFC title game?

--Washington’s 35-20 win over the Giants was a real reversal of fortune from their first meeting, won by New York, 36-0. Redskins receiver Santa Moss went crazy, with five catches for 160 yards and three touchdowns. Skins back Clinton Portis, who played with Moss at the University of Miami, said his fellow Hurricane learned to catch by playing Frisbee with a dog. "He used to catch that Frisbee all the time," Portis said. "He'd outrun the dog, jump up and catch the Frisbee."

The Skins (9-6) looked dead four weeks ago, but they haven’t lost since and a win at Philadelphia next week locks up a playoff spot.

--Two of the hottest quarterbacks (with their helmets off) got wins Sunday – Joey Harrington (left) and Alex Smith. Harrington was OK in the Lions’ dreadfully dull 13-12 win against New Orleans. Smith, meanwhile, had his best game as a pro, going 12 for 16 as the 49ers won 24-20 at St.Louis. Smith was 12 for 16 with no interceptions as he won his first game as a starting QB.

The win was only the 49ers’ third of the season, but two have been against St. Louis. "I feel like we embarrassed the city of St. Louis," wide receiver Isaac Bruce said. "Today wasn't a good day for us."

--The 49ers’ win left Houston with the league’s worst mark at 2-14. The two play next week in what still will be billed as the Reggie Bush Bowl.

--Shaun Alexander of the Seattle Seahawks probably clinched the NFL MVP award with his two touchdowns against the Colts. His 27 scores tie Priest Holmes for the single-season record and Sunday’s game was seen in most of the country. Colts QB Peyton Manning saw his chances hurt since the Colts clinched everything two weeks ago and Manning saw only limited action against Seattle.

--Atlanta’s overtime loss knocked the Falcons out of the playoffs, a year after they reached the conference title game. This continued an inglorious streak for Atlanta, which in its 40-year history has never made the playoffs in two consecutive seasons.

--The Los Angeles Times had an article on how obsessed some NFL players are with the Madden NFL video game. Take Falcons cornerback DeAngelo Hall, who “says it isn't uncommon for him to spend an entire day during the off-season tucked away in his darkened home theater, the one with a 115-inch screen, playing Madden over the Internet against one of his Falcon teammates.” I can take or leave Madden, but a 115-inch screen sounds cool.

--A big shoutout to all the Outsporters from Philly who flew out to Arizona for a Christmas gathering. A shame you were forced to endure watching the Eagles and the Cardinals.

My Top 5

1. Indianapolis (13-2): Forget the two losses in a row; the Colts have not lost a meaningful game all season. They threw for 363 yards with backup Jim Sorgi going most of the way.

2. Seattle (13-2): The Seahawks will be tough to beat at their place in the playoffs.

3. Denver (12-3): Like Seattle, Denver is unbeaten at home.

4. Pittsburgh (10-5): The Steelers are peaking at the right time.

5. New England (10-5): See Pittsburgh.