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The
Australian Open is the first major championship of the
tennis season. In one of the professional sports world’s
more bizarre scheduling moves, the Aussie Open commences
when the fledgling 2006 tennis season is barely two weeks
old. Less than a handful of warm-up tournaments and
exhibitions provide players returning from the off-season
with an opportunity to properly prepare their games and
allow for top players to distinguish themselves as true
contenders for the crown. In anticipating how the
high-stakes action may unfold, one can only look to the past
for an indication of how the favorites will fare Down
Under.
Historically, two types of players win in Oz. Consistent
workhorses, such as former champions Jim Courier and Andre
Agassi, spend their off-season training while their peers
enjoy what little time away from the game they are allowed.
These players use peak physical ability to blast through a
draw that withers beneath the extreme heat of Australian
summers. Mental powerhouses also tend to emerge as
Australian Open champions. Like four-time champion Monica
Seles, these players are able to block out the sudden return
to elite competition, the grueling temperatures, and the
often-sticky Rebound Ace court surface to emerge
head-and-shoulders above the field.
The
Sheilas
Representing the physically fit will be top-ranked
Lindsay Davenport, who is still in search of one more
major victory to cap off a remarkable career. The last time
Davenport won a Slam was when she emerged as the champion of
Oz in 2000. Nonetheless, Lindsay remains a serious threat in
the majors, as evidenced by her bridesmaid appearances to
Serena and Venus in Grand Slam competition last year. By
using her ferocious groundstrokes to eliminate early-round
competition more quickly, Davenport can reserve much needed
energy for the grueling competition in the event’s latter
stages; an invaluable quality when the stakes are highest.
Another
woman possessed of the physical stamina necessary to
challenge for the Australian Open crown is the most recent
Grand Slam winner on the WTA Tour, Belgium’s Kim
Clijsters. Armed with the confidence of winning her
first major title last September, Clijsters won an
exhibition event in Hong Kong to open the 2006 season and
looked to be a safe bet to advance to the Aussie Open’s
later rounds before suffering a hip injury at the Medibank
International in Sydney. The injury forced Clijsters to
withdraw from her quarterfinal match and her status for Oz
hinges on forthcoming test results. Kim has come
agonizingly close to the claiming the Australian Open title
in the past and will certainly do everything in her power to
compete for a second consecutive major title in Melbourne.
The mental
bulldogs on the women’s side are undoubtedly Maria
Sharapova and Serena Williams, who faced off in
last year’s semifinal round. It was a remarkable battle of
wills that saw Williams escape match points as she soared
past Sharapova en route to taking the title. Unfortunately,
Serena does not appear to have the tournament toughness or
physical conditioning to repeat her efforts of one year ago.
The defending champion goes into this year’s Australian Open
having played but one match in the last three months, a
dismal loss to Elena Dementieva in Hong Kong. Still, we
know Serena’s fiery heart will arrive in Melbourne. If
anyone is capable of winning back-to-back titles in Oz by
sheer will alone, it’s Serena Williams.
For her
part, Sharapova could have easily won her second career
major at any of the four Slams last year – falling to the
eventual champion in Melbourne, Paris, London, and New York
– and if she’s fully recovered from a muscle strain that
hampered her at the end of last season, Maria is another
strong candidate to start out the season with a major
victory.
The
reigning French Open and Wimbledon champions, Justine
Henin-Hardenne and Venus Williams, have the guts
to overcome limited playing schedules and still challenge
for major events. Henin-Hardenne has seriously limited her
schedule after contracting a debilitating virus that leaves
her fatigued if she trains or competes too intensely, but
she is playing well and pain-free at the Medibank
International warm-up in Sydney. A healthy Justine could
easily play her way into contention. By contrast, the elder
Williams sister has struggled with consistency and injuries
over the past couple of years. Her remarkable run to last
year’s Wimbledon title was wonderful to witness, but she’s
already come up injured in the very young tennis season and
the Rebound Ace courts are not as forgiving as the grass
lawns of the All England Club.
France’s
Mary Pierce has tasted victory Down Under and will look
to build upon her remarkable comeback season. It’s
hit-or-miss with Pierce, literally, and she would do well to
start off the year strong in Australia – before the pressure
mounts to repeat her accomplishments in Paris and New York.
Another Frenchwoman, 1999 runner-up Amelie Mauresmo,
may be ready to challenge for the title after closing out
last season in style. Amelie won the biggest title of her
career at the season-ending WTA Championships and seemingly
exorcised a few mental demons in the process. The high
bouncing court surface in Oz has always suited Mauresmo’s
game and her talent is unquestionable. Amelie will want to
avoid up-and-coming teenage powerhouse Ana Ivanovic,
however. Ivanovic ousted Mauresmo from last year’s French
Open and again in the first round of this month’s Sydney
warm-up event. Nicole Vaidisova is another teenager
looking for a breakout performance at a major. Vaidisova
probably isn’t a threat to win the entire tournament, but
could be a spoiler for any top contenders who have the
misfortune to land near her in the draw. The same could be
said of 18-year-old lefthander Lucie Safarova.
Safarova opened the year by capturing her third career title
at the Mondial Australian Women’s Hardcourts, rocketing to
number 35 in the WTA rankings. She was ranked number 196 one
year ago.
The
comeback of former champion Martina Hingis will
generate the biggest early buzz of this year’s event. With
the help of a friendly draw, Hingis is capable of advancing
several rounds into the tournament, although she is not yet
ready to challenge the elite players as she did in winning
three consecutive Australian Open titles from 1997-1999. No
doubt that players, media, and fans alike will keep a
curious eye on Martina’s progress for as long as she remains
in the tournament.
The
Blokes
Roger
Federer squandered a match point and lost an epic
five-set semifinal match at last year’s Australian Open.
Make no mistake, Federer is one of the most mentally tough
players around and he will surely be extra motivated to
claim the 2006 title in Melbourne. His conqueror in last
year’s semi, Marat Safin, will not be an obstacle to Federer
in his quest for a second career Australian Open title.
Safin, the defending champion, has not played a match since
August due to tendonitis in his right knee. Joining Safin
on the sidelines are Andre Agassi and Raphael Nadal.
Nadal’s heavy topspin could spell murder on the
high-bouncing Australian hard courts, but Rafa has withdrawn
due to a lingering foot injury, leaving precious few
challengers capable of stopping Federer’s march to the
championship.
Chief among
them is Argentina’s David Nalbandian, twice a Slam
runner-up and a man who has proven somewhat resilient to
Federer’s dominance in the past. Nalbandian is not in the
best physical shape on the tour, but he is extremely
consistent and could trouble Federer if they are neighbors
in the draw. While Federer has managed to overcome
Nalbandian more often than not of late, the Argentine found
his old magic during their most recent contest at the
season-ending Masters Cup in Shanghai, China, where he
defeated Federer in the championship match to claim the
biggest title of his career.
Hometown
hero Lleyton Hewitt and America’s Andy Roddick
will both be looking to return to the Grand Slam winners
circle in Australia, and both men have the games to go far
in Melbourne. Unfortunately, neither of them has been able
to solve the riddle that is Roger Federer. Hewitt has the
dogged determination that should do well in Australia, as he
proved in reaching last year’s final and easily winning the
first set over Safin before succumbing in four. Both Hewitt
and Roddick would appreciate a little help from their peers,
possibly young guns Andy Murray or Gael Monfils,
as Federer appears to be more vulnerable during the
first week of a Slam. Monfils seems particularly
poised to make his mark on the ATP this year. The young
phenom improves noticeably with each event he plays and has
already made the final of a tour event this year, pushing
Federer to a second set tiebreak before succumbing to the
World Number One at a warm-up event in Qatar.
While the
most physically or mentally strong players have an edge in
Oz, the Australian Open also has one other type of winner in
its archives: the completely unexpected champion, such as
Thomas Johansson in 2002 or Vitas Gerulaitis in December
1977. Looking to join that pantheon of shocking Slam champs
may be Ivan Ljubicic, who played some remarkable
tennis in 2005 – particularly in Davis Cup matches – and is
overdue for a good showing at a Grand Slam. If the
tournament is plagued with upsets, as an event so early in
the season can often be, Ljubicic is capable of sneaking
through to the final weekend.
Good
On Ya, Mate!
By
commencing extremely early in the tennis season and being
far removed from tennis’s other three major championships,
the Australian Open does not cater to surface specialists
nor does it necessarily serve as a preview of the tennis
season to come. It is, above all else, a unique and
isolated opportunity for tennis’s most shrewd competitors to
add the glory of a Grand Slam title to their legacy. Muscle
may halt grit; grit may stop strength; or perhaps good
timing will trump the field. But no matter who ultimately
takes home the first Grand Slam titles of the year, the
Australian Open is always a real corker!
Picks:
Men's Semifinals: Federer d. Hewitt; Roddick d. Ancic
Men's Final: Federer d. Roddick
Women's Semifinals: Sharapova d. Henin-Hardenne;
Pierce d. Mauresmo
Women's Final: Sharapova d. Pierce
Wyman Meers is a writer living
in New York. He is
Gaga4Gaby on the Outsports Discussion Board.
Jan. 10, 2006 |
