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Expect the expected
Federer and Sharapova will reign again
at U.S. Open
By
Wyman Meers
Outsports.com
Annually
and inevitably, the end of summer arrives in New York to
universal surprise. Odd, considering how the calendar is
unfailing, that warm weather revelers from beach bums to
barbeque aficionados to sports fans find themselves
blindsided by the most predictable of occasions. Premature
nostalgia sets in while the weather is still perfectly
enjoyable. We lament not taking more advantage than we did
or scurry to plan a party before it’s too late.
That
party could very well be the U.S. Open, the last major
tournament of the tennis year, and the most raucous event on
the professional schedule with its night time marquee
matches, boisterous crowds, and fast paced hard courts that
give no one style of play an advantage.
Yet as
2007 U.S. Open Series winners and defending champions Roger
Federer and Maria Sharapova prepare to take on a host of
challengers, the former looking to become the first man in
Open Era history to win four consecutive titles in New York
while the latter has landed on a cushion of a draw that
should see her advance to the penultimate round with ease,
it is difficult to know how to feel. The Open itself may
turn out to be little more than a milestone that announces
the end of a season.
The Federer Express Rolls On
Roger
Federer
is ranked No. 1 in the world. At the tender age of 26, he
holds 11 Grand Slam titles and counting. He has not lost a
match at a Grand Slam event outside of Paris since the
Australian Open in 2005 and has not lost in New York since
he fell to one-time nemesis David Nalbandian in 2003.
Federer is the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. Open once
again this year, with precious few players capable of
derailing his efforts, none of who are particularly close to
him in the draw.
Predicting an upset of Federer requires a lot of faith in
percentages – after all, it has to happen sooner or later
and seems long overdue – or an excessively magnified
dissection of his recent results. Federer has not won quite
as many matches this year as he has in years past. He has
seemed to be off form, struggling, or pushed more often than
normal. However, the fact of the matter is that Federer
still manages to win even when he’s not at his best.
Whether he wins a match by dropping five games total versus
dropping the occasional set is actually irrelevant.
The
unlucky contender to be drawn in Federer’s section is the
2003 U.S. Open winner, Andy Roddick, and their
projected quarterfinal clash would be a rematch of last
year’s final. It is the worst case scenario for Roddick,
still the United States’ best hope to win a Grand Slam men’s
singles title.
Although
the American is possessed of a brutally effective serve and
punishing forehand, he is suffering mentally from a loss of
confidence that originated with the ascendance of the
almighty Federer. Roddick made no secret of his desire to
dethrone Federer.His failure to do so was therefore equally
public. Before long, forthright ambition melted into
frustrated resignation. Roddick also made the critical
mistake of focusing too tightly on Federer, and younger
players have surpassed him in the rankings. His confidence
shaken, Roddick now struggles to beat other players ranked
in the top ten and regularly falls to solid journeymen who
are capable of bunting back his opening blasts.
Roddick’s window of opportunity to be known as more than a
one Slam wonder is closing. Ideally, a victory over Federer
en route to the title would restore his lost reputation and
mojo, but his best hope of returning to the final lies in
the unlikely event that another player dismisses Federer in
the early rounds on Roddick’s behalf.
The top
players in the next quarter, fourth-seeded Russian
Nikolay Davydenko and sixth-seeded American James
Blake, are both in desperate need of a strong run in New
York. Both men have shown an inability to break through to
the highest echelons of the men’s game, hovering just below
the surface of greatness and disappointing in their biggest
moments. Davydenko is a steady test that top players
ultimately pass, while Blake is a punishing ball striker
whose powerful strokes tend to fly long under pressure.
Blake has been in a year-long slump, but showed signs of
life in reaching the final of a warm-up event in Cincinnati
before bowing meekly to Federer. Davydenko is embroiled in a
match-fixing controversy that could distract from his
focus. Neither player is a guarantee to live up to their
seeding, particularly with talented players like former
world number two Tommy Haas and affable Cypriot
Marcos Baghdatis lurking nearby.
The
third section of the draw is anchored by world No. 3
Novak Djokovic, whose breakout year hit new heights at
the U.S. Open Series event in Montreal. Djokovic scored
consecutive defeats of then-third-ranked Andy Roddick,
second-ranked Rafael Nadal, and Federer to claim the Masters
shield and serve notice that he is ready to challenge for
Grand Slam crowns. It was the first time in 13 years
that a player had buzzed through the game’s top three to win
a championship. Djokovic has yet to advance to a major
final, however, and inhabits what appears to be the toughest
quarter of the draw. The ambitious youngster could face
stern tests from determined and resurgent veterans. Spaniard
Carlos Moya defeated Djokovic earlier this summer in
Cincinnati, Mikhail Youzny was a semifinalist in New
York one year ago, and dogged former champion Lleyton
Hewitt has displayed recent glimpses of the form that
took him to No. 1 in the world. There is little doubt that
Novak Djokovic will break through and win a Grand Slam title
soon. A championship run in New York this year, though not
impossible, may still be too much to ask.
The
bottom of the draw should belong to reigning French Open
champion, Rafael Nadal, who plays his best on clay
but refuses to define himself by court surface. Nadal made
believers out of his most ardent doubters by reaching the
Wimbledon final and pushing Federer to the limit on London’s
tricky grass courts. Nadal has also seen his share of
injuries this summer and may go into the Open nursing a sore
knee or wrist, potentially making him vulnerable to solid
players like Fernando Gonzalez, David Nalbandian,
or perhaps a surprise run by 2001 champion Marat Safin.
While
the top, well known Americans face an uphill battle if they
want to impress at this year’s U.S. Open, several lesser
known players have put up nice results for the United States
in recent months. The trio of upstarts – Donald Young,
Sam Querry, and John Isner – will not challenger
for the title, but they will be eager to play spoiler before
saying goodbye to New York.
Pandora the Explorer
Meanwhile, the U.S. Open women’s field is once again
seemingly without conformity or direction due to the bizarre
state of the ladies’ game.
The
racquet technology that gave the women’s game greater depth
and stronger shot making has come with a price, and the
power that once infused life into the women’s tour now
threatens to overtake the players all together. Women’s
matches are often wild with errors as they swing freely,
incapable of harnessing the added might. Moreover, the
swelling physicality of the game has reduced these athletes
to walking wounded who are suddenly responsible for their
actions. The player left standing at the end of the
tournament may very well be the one who best navigates the
pitfalls that have become intrinsic to the modern game.
Top-ranked Justine Henin, suffering from a sore
shoulder, leads off the draw as part of a top-heavy upper
half that includes the majority of women considered
contenders for the crown. Henin was able to overcome the
shoulder soreness and claim the U.S. Open Series title in
Toronto, but she will need easy matches in the first week of
the tournament in order to combat the pounding her ligaments
are sure to take if she advances to meet the many tough
players who stand in the way of a trip to the final.
Henin,
the French Open champion, is projected to face
Australian Open winner Serena Williams in the
quarterfinals of a major for the third time this year.
Henin downed Serena in the quarters of both the French Open
and Wimbledon. She will look for the hat trick of defeats
while Serena will be out for revenge on her home turf,
should she be fit enough to play and seriously contend.
Williams has not played a competitive match since Wimbledon
due to a thumb injury that prevents her from properly
hitting her backhand. Yet if the injury is under control,
Serena Williams is a master at willing her way into form and
her lack of match play can be overcome.
The
bottom quarter of the ladies’ top half includes the two
Serbians who have stormed up the WTA rankings this year,
world number three Jelena Jankovic and fifth-seeded
Ana Ivanovic, as well as Wimbledon champion Venus
Williams. The three women are the most likely players
to fill this section’s semifinal spot, but there is only
room for one, and their head-to-head-to-head dynamic is
quite intriguing: Ivanovic has lost to Jankovic only once in
five career meetings and has beaten her higher-ranked
countrywoman three times this year; Jankovic, however, holds
a 3-2 advantage over Venus, a lead that includes the last
three matches they’ve contested and both encounters at major
tournaments; and, for her part, Venus Williams has not lost
to Ana Ivanovic in three career meetings.
The
significantly less challenging bottom half of the draw opens
with a third quarter that features two former U.S. Open
champions, the erratic Russian Svetlana Kuznetsova
and the injured and power-deficient Swiss, Martina Hingis.
Also in this section is another talented yet underachieving
Russian, seventh-seeded Nadia Petrova. The fourth
quarter of the draw limply offers two injured upstarts,
Anna Chakvedatze and Nicole Vaidisova, before
ending with reigning titleholder Maria Sharapova.
Sharapova should face little resistance en route to the
final, with unexpected challenges perhaps more likely to
come from an in-form Sania Mirza or crafty veteran
Patty Schnyder than from the more established names that
obstruct her path to the championship match. The final may
indeed be Sharapova’s biggest worry, particularly if she
were to face either of the Williams sisters; Serena and
Venus humiliated Sharapova in savagely dismissing her from
Grand Slams earlier in the season.
Stating the Obvious
There is
something in human nature that craves surprise amidst
routine. This is why we bury our collective head in the sand
as summer stretches toward its conclusion. It is also why
we love sports. Fans study players, teams, and results to
the point of obsession. We meticulously calculate
statistics and attain an intimate familiarity with what is
expected, if only so that we can feel the exhilaration that
comes with revelation. Yet sometimes the biggest surprises
come through willful refusal of the obvious.
If Roger
Federer and Maria Sharapova repeat as champions in New York
two weeks from now, there will be few among us who won’t
admit, red-faced, “I should have seen that coming.”
Predictions
Men’s
Semifinals:
Roger
Federer d. Marcos Baghdatis; Novak Djokovic d. Rafael Nadal
Men’s
Final: Roger Federer d. Novak Djokovic
Women’s
Semifinals:
Jankovic
d. Henin; Sharapova d. Kirilenko
Women’s
Final: Sharapova d. Jankovic
Wyman Meers is a writer
living in New York. He is Gaga4Gaby on the
Outsports
Discussion Board.
Aug. 25,
2007 |
